Netanyahu's support for Trump's Gaza plan is a gamble that could win back estranged allies abroad and restore his political reputation at home.
However, there is a risk that he will alienate coalition partners who reject even the suggestion of a Palestinian state.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has teamed up with US President Donald Trump, has presented the plan as a joint effort that advances his government's goals while deflecting international criticism of the war onto Hamas, which must now decide whether to accept it or continue the siege.
The move could bolster Netanyahu's domestic support by ending the increasingly unpopular war and securing the release of hostages still held by the Palestinian militant group. This boosts his chances in elections a year from now.
However, the reference to a Palestinian state is likely to anger members of Netanyahu's governing coalition, the most right-wing in Israel's history, in which ultra-nationalist allies Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich wield excessive influence.
The plan demands little of Israel
Nadav Shtrauchler, a former adviser to Netanyahu, described the deal as a win-win situation for the prime minister. It shifts all the pressure onto Hamas, while weakening international scrutiny of Israel and leaving critics of the coalition with no alternative.
“For him, it's checkmate. It's a very strong move,” he said, adding that it could lead to Netanyahu going into the next election with the release of hostages and renewed Israeli efforts to expand relations with Arab and Muslim countries, a process that was interrupted by the Gaza war.
Trump's proposal, which was quickly endorsed by leading politicians in the Arab and Muslim world, demands little from Israel in the short term.
Instead, it puts full pressure on Hamas, demanding the release of all remaining hostages and the surrender of weapons as a condition for ending Israel's siege of the Gaza Strip.
The Israeli military would remain in Gaza for the time being and only withdraw to positions along the border once international forces took control. Netanyahu, who had insisted that Israel must retain full security control after the war, said on Tuesday that the military would remain in most parts of Gaza, but did not specify a timetable.
Coalition partner condemns plan
In a detailed post on X on Tuesday, Smotrich, who had openly called for the continuation of the Israeli campaign in Gaza, condemned Trump's plan on the grounds that it would trade “real achievements on the ground for political illusions.” His religious Zionist party holds seven of the 120 seats in the Knesset, although current polls suggest it would struggle to win any of those seats in an election today.
Israel's war in the Gaza Strip, which began in response to a surprise attack by Hamas in October 2023, has lost broad public support. A poll released Tuesday by the Jerusalem-based Israel Democratic Institute found that 66 percent of Israelis believe it is time to end the war. Nearly half of those surveyed are politically right-wing.
Eran Lerman, former deputy national security adviser, said Netanyahu knows that Hamas' acceptance of Trump's plan could break his governing coalition. But he could still hope to face voters with a “completely different view of the events of the last two years” than he would present today.
“I'm not sure if that's true, but politicians tend to believe things that suit their ambitions,” said Lerman, who is also vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, a think tank.
The Israeli opposition, consisting of right-wing, center-left, and left-wing parties, has also called for an end to the war and frequently criticized Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, another far-right minister with excessive influence in the coalition. Many have also ruled out a future coalition with Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox allies due to their communities' refusal to serve in the military.
A source familiar with the matter said Netanyahu would not submit Trump's 20-point plan to the cabinet for approval, but would simply ask ministers to vote on the terms of the hostage release. In return, Israel would release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
Former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas warned that Netanyahu would likely drag out negotiations on still-unclear issues, such as the withdrawal of the Israeli army, in order to survive politically while undermining Trump's plan.
Confidence in election victory
Israel faces growing international isolation due to the nearly two-year war in Gaza. This month, despite Israeli objections, some of its closest allies formally recognized the independence of a Palestinian state, while others sanctioned senior government ministers and banned arms shipments to Israel.
Hamas, on the other hand, has little diplomatic leverage. It could accept terms or try to negotiate, but that would risk the plan being implemented in areas it no longer controls, while Trump gives Israel the green light to continue its attacks on the group.
A source familiar with the matter said Netanyahu had pushed to remove any mention of a Palestinian state from Trump's plan, which the Israeli leader said would never happen.
The document does not offer a clear path to statehood. Instead, it outlines how Gaza is to be restored. Once the Palestinian Authority's reform agenda is “faithfully implemented,” “the conditions for a credible path to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people, may finally be in place.”
This wording is likely to anger many of Netanyahu's right-wing coalition partners, who had publicly warned against any mention of a Palestinian state ahead of his meeting with Trump.
Netanyahu, standing next to Trump, said the document laid the groundwork for dramatic progress toward peace in the region and beyond, signaling the ambitions of both leaders to expand Israel's relations with Muslim states that do not yet recognize it.
Neve Gordon, an Israel scholar at Queen Mary University of London, said Netanyahu probably believed he could win the next election in October 2026 if he had a plan to normalize relations with other Arab and Muslim states.
However, he warned that Netanyahu could later turn away from Trump's plan after accepting it and blame Hamas for it — a tactic he has used before and one that could even strengthen his political position.
(Reuters-Analyse)