Goldman Sachs already has a likely winner for the upcoming World Cup: Spain. The bank’s economists say the prediction follows a historical pattern that has proved remarkably persistent. After a South American team wins the title, the trophy returns to Europe at the next tournament.
The US bank gives Spain a 26% probability of winning the World Cup, which takes place this year in the US, Canada and Mexico and starts in less than two weeks. Goldman Sachs economists base that judgment on a detailed analysis of the historical success rate of each participating national team, as well as other variables such as the players’ talent level. The projection is largely inspired by the Elo rating, a system originally created for chess players.
In the bank’s ranking, Spain, winner of the World Cup 16 years ago, comes ahead of Argentina and France. Its chances have been boosted by a favorable assessment of its players’ talent, Goldman Sachs said. France has a 19% chance of winning this year’s title, while third-placed Argentina, the defending champion, has a 14% probability.
Spain and France are likely to meet in the semi-finals, the bank predicts, while Argentina and Brazil are expected to face each other.
A Model Built on 20,000 Matches
Goldman Sachs based its projection on the results of nearly 20,000 international matches played since 1978. In addition to the factors mentioned above, it includes assessments of each team’s current strength and mental attitude. It also takes geographical factors into account. The geographical adjustment would penalize England, for example, because England would face Mexico at the high altitude of Mexico City despite its strong rating.
In addition to the semi-finals and the final, other closely watched games could include a possible clash between the US and Iran, amid tensions between the two countries, or a possible quarter-final between Argentina and Portugal, pitting two football legends, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, against each other.
Slovakia’s national team did not qualify for the tournament, although it did, for example, beat favored Germany at home in a group match. It later failed to get past Kosovo in the play-offs.
Germany fares poorly in the draw simulation. Goldman Sachs describes it as the least lucky team in the draw, with the model expecting Germany to face France in the last 16.
Goldman Sachs has also calculated that the Czech Republic has a 0.2% chance of winning the World Cup. That still puts it ahead of Scotland and Sweden, for example, which are both rated at just 0.1%.
The Czech side has more than a two-thirds chance of advancing from its group, putting it ahead of almost half the field. Goldman Sachs therefore does not see the team as a rank outsider, but places it somewhere in the middle of the pack.
Text originally published on lukaskovanda.cz.