Strong El Niño Onset Expected by UN Weather Agency

On Friday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) revised its forecast upward, warning of the rapid onset of a powerful El Niño. The periodic phenomenon, characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically lasts nine to 12 months.

WMO scientist Alvaro Silva said forecast models show a rare consensus on the high intensity of the upcoming event, which significantly raises the risk of extreme weather worldwide.

Meteorologists had expected a moderate to strong El Niño in early June, but new data confirm that conditions in the equatorial Pacific will be exceptionally strong. The WMO does not rule out a further revision of the forecast to a "strong" El Niño if summer developments confirm this trend. The phenomenon is expected to bring above-average drought to Central and South America, the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia, where it may weaken the monsoon season.

El Niño is also expected to drive up global temperatures sharply, as temperatures typically reach record highs during its active phase.

The warning comes shortly after Europe experienced its worst heat wave on record in late June, an event attributed to climate change. Silva added that the main effects of this strong cycle will hit various regions of the world by the end of this year and will persist until 2027.

(Reuters, Max)