Lavazza CEO Warns of Coffee Market Turmoil

The latest wave of volatility in the coffee market is set to continue, complicating the outlook for consumers hoping for lower retail prices. Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of the board of the Italian family-owned coffee roaster Luigi Lavazza SpA, said this in an interview with Bloomberg in London.

According to Lavazza, a significant easing of global supply constraints will require at least two consecutive strong harvests and a replenishment of global stocks, which virtually rules out a real decline in prices over the next two years.

Futures contracts for premium Arabica in New York recorded record intraday gains, followed by sharp declines. Although prospects for a bountiful harvest in Brazil initially pushed prices down from their 2025 all-time highs, that optimism quickly faded.

The market is currently facing shrinking inventories, delays in the Brazilian harvest and concerns about the El Nino weather phenomenon, which brings drought during the coffee trees' flowering season. Prices have risen by 30% since meteorologists officially declared the phenomenon.

“I think we are living in a long-lasting period of instability and uncertainty”, Lavazza said, adding that roasters are currently struggling with significantly lower margins. He said the world needs exceptionally strong production from Brazil and Vietnam to restore balance, but preliminary data so far do not confirm the optimistic expectations from late last year, and instability remains the new norm.

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