The Fog of War Clouds Clear Thinking About Ukraine’s Future

To this foreigner living in Poland, the current dispute between my adoptive homeland and Ukraine over President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision to name a military unit after the “Heroes of the UPA” is incomprehensible. Not because the origins of the deeply held beliefs on both sides are difficult to fathom – they are not. But precisely because the situation is so clear-cut.

Zelensky’s repeated decisions to lean into deeply controversial corners of his country’s history, to the delight of Ukraine’s nationalists, are clearly foolish and uncooperative in nature. They do not undo all of the collaboration between Ukraine and its allies in the four and a half years since Russia’s invasion, but they do undermine it.

It is a reading of the situation endorsed by the European Parliament, which on 8 July expressed regret at Zelensky’s decision to glorify the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) by naming an elite military unit after it.

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The European Parliament Backs Poland’s View

A resolution adopted by a majority of MEPs recalled the European Parliament’s previous condemnation of the Volhynia Massacre, which saw tens of thousands of Poles, the majority of whom were women and children, murdered by the UPA during the later years of the Second World War.

MEPs voted in favor of the amendment, which expressed regret at the recent “unnecessary and unprovoked escalation” by Zelensky, as well as the “disregard for Polish sensitivities and grief related to the UPA’s estimated many tens of thousands of victims and their families”.

It said that this was especially regrettable in light of Poland’s support of Ukraine against Russia and judged that the decision undermined “neighbourly relations” and previous efforts to address unresolved aspects of the contentious history shared by the neighboring countries in a “spirit of true and sincere reconciliation”.

The decision, according to MEPs, was “not in line with European values”, and the amendment concluded with a call for de-escalation and renewed efforts in good faith toward reconciliation.

The reality of the situation is so clear that a broad coalition of European parliamentarians can see it, but it apparently remains opaque to no small number of Ukrainian commentators and, more troublingly, officials, both regional and senior.

On 7 July the Lviv Regional Council issued a defiant statement to the effect that it would not accept “external pressure” regarding who or what Ukrainians should or should not honor from their history. This regional council clearly took its lead from the nation’s president, who said much the same in response to the initial pushback to his decree.

The day before that, 6 July, the Lviv Regional Council proposed declaring 2027 the year of Roman Shukhevych, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army and Oleh Olzhych – names deeply reviled in Poland, where they stand not so much for freedom as for terror and bloodshed.

Perhaps as is to be expected from a country that has been in resistance mode for a lengthy period, the Ukrainian perspective adopted in relation to Poland has been one of resistance, reacting to a country voicing its opinion as though it was an existential threat of the kind presented by Russia.

“No foreign state, no political figure, or external institution has the moral or legal right to determine whom Ukrainians should honor as their Heroes”, the Lviv council’s statement read. It added that, just as Ukraine does not interfere in the formation of other peoples’ historical memory, it expects the same respect for its own sovereign right.

That, as best I can tell, is not, and never has been in modern times, Poland’s intention. All it is asking is for recognition that the UPA and the key figures involved with it committed atrocities. It is reasonably pointing out that the glorification of those responsible for terrible things is odd for a country that seeks to join the European Union, where murderous elements are rightly frowned upon in most cases.

Poland a Threat to Ukrainian Sovereignty?

For doing so, however, Poland has been equated with a threat to Ukrainian sovereignty. The clearest expression of this came from the head of the President’s Office, former military intelligence director Kyrylo Budanov.

In an interview with a Ukrainian outlet, Budanov claimed that Poland was preparing “immature escalatory steps” as the diplomatic divide deepened – perhaps in part alluding to the European Parliament resolution passed that day – before suggesting that Poland was laying down an ultimatum to Ukraine in a manner not dissimilar to Russia.

Budanov said the last country to issue Ukraine with an ultimatum had been the Russian Federation. “No offense to Poland, but it’s somewhat more powerful than Poland – and we didn’t accept its ultimatum either.”

Poland is exerting no pressure upon Ukraine other than the pressure to be decent. Ukrainian officials repeat over and over again that the intent of Zelensky’s decree was not to antagonize Poland, but what good is that when the action taken is inherently antagonistic? The European Parliament is capable of recognizing this, as evidenced by the recent vote, and yet Ukraine is not.

Fortunately for Ukraine, goodwill and understanding remain, both in Poland and more broadly, which is why the country’s accession process is expected to continue for the time being. But officials blinded by the fog of war would do well to remember that what works for war does not necessarily work for peace.