Russian farmers and market analysts are sceptical that government measures will significantly boost grain exports or support domestic prices. Shipments from Russia and Ukraine via the Black Sea have virtually ground to a halt amid tit-for-tat attacks, leaving grain to pile up on the domestic market.

The government plans to reroute some exports, scrap grain export duties until the end of the year, purchase supplies for state reserves, subsidize rail transport, extend producers’ loan repayments and use excess stocks as livestock feed.

Sovecon analyst Andrey Sizov warned that without improved shipping conditions in the Black and Azov Seas, the surplus would continue to grow, keeping domestic prices under pressure.

Alternative routes include ports on the Baltic and Caspian Seas and in the Far East. The government has also raised the possibility of using the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic, a route not currently used for grain. However, these options are more expensive and, according to experts, cannot replace the volumes previously shipped through southern ports, which handled up to 70% of the country’s grain exports.

The People’s Farmer Association has proposed planting fewer winter crops to address the oversupply. The Agriculture Ministry opposes the proposal, arguing that such a cut would jeopardize food security.

(Reuters, lud)