NYT: Iran May Escalate War, US Intelligence Says

According to the New York Times, US intelligence assessments suggest that Tehran has gained a better understanding of its own military capabilities and become more confident in its position. Iran may therefore continue the conflict for months and consider a more significant escalation.

After a period of relative calm, Iranian forces attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US troops in the region. The United States responded with strikes that killed military personnel and civilians.

Although the latest exchange of fire remained limited, an agreement to end the war still appears distant.

Donald Trump is not currently pursuing negotiations and is relying instead on economic pressure. According to officials familiar with the assessments, however, sanctions could provoke further escalation in the short term.

Tehran still has stockpiles of missiles and drones, while its leadership has become more unified and internal opposition has been silenced. It also better understands the leverage provided by the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passed before the war. Iran may also be counting on dwindling US ammunition supplies.

US officials believe Iran-linked hackers were most likely responsible for attacks on more than 100 water systems in the United States. The hackers have also shown interest in targeting oil and gas infrastructure. A prolonged conflict and high gas prices could also hurt Trump and the Republicans ahead of the November elections.

(NYT, bak)