Ukrainian Strikes Take Toll on Russian Refineries

Russia’s oil-refining industry is deteriorating as more frequent and precise Ukrainian drone strikes combine with international sanctions that are making it harder to obtain replacement parts, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Bloomberg reports.

Russian refineries were hit by at least 22 strikes in August, the highest monthly number since the start of the war. Ukrainian forces have increasingly launched multiple waves of drones against individual sites and targeted secondary processing units, some of which can take up to eight months to repair.

As a result, the IEA has lowered its forecast for Russian oil processing over the next 18 months to around four million barrels per day, 30% below pre-invasion levels. It also cut its estimate for total Russian oil supplies in 2026 by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million barrels per day.

The cumulative damage is expected to worsen as colder weather sets in and sanctions make replacement parts more difficult to obtain. Russia has introduced a series of restrictions on fuel exports to protect domestic supplies, while shortages have led to long lines at gas stations in some parts of the country.

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