Spy Chiefs Warn Russia Could Test NATO Within Months

European intelligence officials warn that Russia could intensify its activities against NATO countries in the coming months.

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Information Service, told The Guardian that a limited incursion into NATO territory bordering Russia, false-flag provocations or a large-scale influence campaign were among the possible scenarios.

Koudelka said such a scenario could unfold within “months, not years”. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk had previously said that intelligence assessments suggested Russia could launch a drone or missile attack on NATO territory in the coming months in an attempt to demonstrate that Article 5 is “more theoretical than practical”.

Baltic officials have been more cautious. Normunds Mezviets, head of Latvia’s State Security Service (VDD), said there were no signs of an imminent attack. According to him, it remained unclear whether Moscow was preparing specific actions or primarily seeking to spread fear and uncertainty.

However, the heads of the Czech, Latvian and Swedish intelligence services agreed that Russia’s sabotage campaign in Europe was likely to intensify in the coming months. Mezviets said Russia was increasingly targeting railway infrastructure, support for Ukraine and the defense industry.

(lud)