On February 13th, an Afghan attacker ploughed his car into a crowd in Munich. It was not the first such incident in Germany’s 2025 federal election campaign. Just months earlier, in December, a Saudi Arabian migrant had driven a car into a Christmas market in Magdeburg, killing six and injuring 299. At the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance directly addressed the recent violence, calling mass migration the most urgent challenge of our time. Emphasising that democracy rests on the “sacred principle” of the people's voice, he rejected the notion of political firewalls against the so-called far-right. Notably, instead of meeting with Social-democrat chancellor Olaf Scholz, he chose to sit down with the Christian-democrat main contender Friedrich Merz—and with Alice Weidel, leader of the populist party AfD. In a country still shaped by Angela Merkel’s 2015 migration policies, such events might have been game-changers—comparable, perhaps, to the attempts on Donald Trump’s life in the U.S. election the previous year.
Yet nothing of the sort has happened. The so-called ‘firewall’—the strategy of cordoning off the populist right Alternative for Germany (AfD) from mainstream political discourse—remains firmly in place. The party, with its anti-migration and Eurosceptic platform, is expected to perform well at the ballot box, likely securing between 20% and 25% of the vote, making it the second-largest force after the centrist Christian Democrats (CDU). Yet, due to the political quarantine imposed by the other parties, these seats will be largely inconsequential. If anything, the mainstream parties, are likely to close ranks even further.
The Wrong Man for the Wrong Era
The man best positioned to become Germany’s next chancellor is Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU. The Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens are floundering, meaning the left has little hope of forming a governing coalition without him. Memories of the failed ‘traffic light’ coalition—uniting the SPD, Greens, and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP)—are still fresh in voters’ minds. But even if he secures the chancellorship, Merz will be left with a fragile parliamentary composition. For many voters, the AfD remains the only real ‘alternative,’ given that a vote for the CDU could inadvertently restore the very left-wing parties they seek to oust. This is not the only reason why the campaign is proceeding along rigid, predetermined tracks—like a Deutsche Bahn train bound for political stagnation.
Since the collapse of the ‘traffic light’ coalition in November 2024, a questionable parliamentary agreement has been in place between the opposition and the remnants of the left-wing government. The CDU pledged not to push through any parliamentary initiatives with votes from the AfD, even when it could have used them to pass conservative policies which it agreed with. Merz had a brief window of opportunity to enact a return to nuclear power, repeal gender self-identification laws, introduce an economic stimulus package, and implement stricter migration controls. CDU and CSU ( the CDU’s regional Bavarian “sister party”) votes, combined with those of the FDP and AfD, would have been sufficient. He could have reshaped Germany’s political landscape before a single vote was cast.