Germany, a long-time partner in trade and security, has greatly benefitted from mutual cooperation in the past, but Trump’s movement sees the partnership more as an abusive relationship than a functional marriage. With Trump in the White House the alliance appears strained, but a right-wing surge in Germany’s upcoming election could reverse course.
Friends with Benefits
The relationship between the United States and Germany has largely revolved around their shared geopolitical goals and mutual trade obligations. Both nations have remained core members of NATO since the early years of the alliance, with the U.S. being a founding member since 1949 and Germany a reliable partner for seven decades now. The Ukraine-Russia war has been a largely unifying endeavor in recent years as both countries have backed Ukraine’s defense, though there remains a disparity between Germany’s signalled and realised material support. In November 2024 Steven Sokol, President of the American Council on Germany, expressed solidarity between the nations: “Germany has been, and remains, one of our closest allies and most steadfast security partners.” [1] Economically, the U.S. is Germany’s largest trading partner, and the U.S. benefits greatly from the sizable foreign investment of renewable energy technologies spearheaded by the central-European state as well as the nearly one million American jobs brought by subsidiaries of German companies.
Straining the Relationship
Though their alliance looks great on paper, the reality is more complicated. For one, Germany’s dependence on exports could lead to economic woes as Trump, fresh off an executive order imposing tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, promises tariffs on the EU, too. Trump stated in January: “Am I going to impose tariffs on the European Union? Do you want the truthful answer or should I give you a political answer? Absolutely, absolutely.” [2] With nearly 10% of German exports arriving on American shores, a tariff might destabilise an increasingly shaky relationship between the long-time allies [3].
On the security front, “America First” supporters view the U.S.-German relationship as too lopsided. Washington’s NATO contribution, the largest of any member, far outweighs Berlin's meager support. Though Germany met NATO's target of 2% GDP allocation on defence in 2024, it’s still well-short of U.S. President Donald Trump's previous calls for as much as 5% and comes only after years of falling short of the NATO target. [4] Trump’s movement questions the disparity between U.S. and EU commitments to NATO and poses the question: Is the EU, Germany included, free-loading, and using American taxpayer money to do it? The question becomes more pertinent when one considers that support for the ongoing Ukraine War remains polarising among those taxpayers [5]. Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw American support from NATO completely, a move which would cause upheaval in Germany (and Europe in general), forcing a realignment of military expenditure.