Trade unions played an important role in making clear the lack of public confidence in the Hartz reforms, organising “Monday demonstrations” in protest. 

In 2004, Forsa, one of the main German pollsters, conducted a survey of the public’s opinion about the reforms. According to this survey, 46 percent considered these to be “essentially right” and 42 percent “essentially wrong”. 

With support from their traditional power base greatly diminished, the SPD has seemingly pivoted, as it is now portraying itself mainly as a champion of progressive social causes. It has embraced EU federalism, environmental policies that disproportionately affect blue-collar industries, and a brand of identity politics that resonates with urban progressives but alienates many traditional supporters. While these stances appeal to younger, university-educated voters, they do little to assuage the concerns of those struggling with rising living costs, job insecurity, and the pressures of globalisation.

The electoral consequences have been severe. Compared to its heyday (from the early 1970s to the late 1990s), the general trend in the SPD’s share of the vote in federal elections is one of decline. 

In many industrial regions, former strongholds have turned to the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) or, more worryingly for the SPD, to the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD). This latter shift is particularly telling. Many working-class voters, once the backbone of social democracy, now see the AfD as a more credible advocate for their economic and cultural anxieties.

The Pitfalls of Identity Politics

The SPD’s embrace of what critics call “woke” politics has further complicated its predicament. While social justice rhetoric plays well among activists and in certain urban enclaves, it is often met with skepticism by working-class voters who feel that their own struggles—stagnant wages, housing shortages, and economic insecurity—are being overshadowed by issues of gender, race, and immigration.

This disconnect is particularly evident in debates over the latter. The SPD has consistently supported liberal immigration policies and the EU’s open-border principles, a stance that sits uneasily with many of its former supporters. For workers facing wage pressures and competition for jobs, the party’s focus on multiculturalism and diversity can seem detached from economic realities. In contrast, right-wing populists have successfully framed themselves as defenders of national identity and economic fairness, filling the void left by social democracy’s retreat from class-based politics.

Another flashpoint is climate policy. The SPD has aligned itself closely with the Greens on environmental issues, endorsing ambitious carbon reduction targets and the phasing out of coal. While such policies may be needed in the fight against climate change, they disproportionately affect workers in energy-intensive industries. Many coal miners, steelworkers, and auto industry employees—once staunch SPD voters—now view the party as indifferent to their livelihoods. Without a clear vision for how these workers will fit into the green economy (the viability of which remains a sizable question mark), the SPD risks breeding more alienation in its traditional base.

A Party at a Crossroads

In the face of stiff opposition—not just from the right-wing populist AfD, but the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice party, founded only last year—can the SPD reverse its decline? 

Some within the party argue that a return to economic populism could help win back working-class voters. A stronger focus on wage growth, housing affordability, and job security might blunt the appeal of other alternatives. However, this would require a recalibration of priorities—one that distances the SPD from its Green coalition partners and re-engages with the concerns of blue-collar Germans.

Others believe the party should double down on its progressive agenda, hoping that demographic shifts will eventually deliver electoral rewards. This strategy, however, carries significant risks. As seen in other European countries, the loss of working-class support is not easily compensated by gains among urban liberals. Moreover, the SPD’s positioning on EU federalism remains a point of contention. While the party’s pro-Europe stance is ideologically consistent, it reinforces the perception that it prioritises Brussels over Berlin, deepening the sense of disconnect felt by many voters.

A Warning from History

At its core, the SPD’s crisis is an existential one. The party’s history is one of adaptation, but also of deep ideological roots in the labor movement. A political formation that no longer represents its foundational electorate risks becoming directionless, vulnerable to both internal fragmentation and external challengers. The fate of France’s Socialist Party, which has all but collapsed as a significant political force, serves as a cautionary tale.

For now, the SPD remains Germany’s oldest political party, but that status does not guarantee its survival. If it cannot bridge the gap between its progressive hobby horses and the material concerns of working-class voters, it may soon find itself a party without a people. And in electoral politics, that spells utter doom.