Several countries have seen salary increases partly due to Chinese agro-investment, albeit Chinese projects often falter and data is spotty. South Africa’s Western Cape saw investments in pomelo farming and wine production, increasing demand for skilled labor amid a broader pay rise from 2018–2023. Kenya’s Belt and Road-linked infrastructure enhanced transport and irrigation, likely improving market access for Rift Valley horticulture, indirectly raising farm incomes. Zambia’s Chinese-backed agricultural centers train farmers, though salary gains remain localised. In Zimbabwe and Ghana, Chinese involvement in tobacco and rice farming might be lifting rural wages, but economic instability and inflation offset this.

Western aid and investment in African agriculture have likely raised wages in select regions over the past five years. In Ethiopia’s Oromia and Amhara, USAID and World Bank programs have boosted crop yields and trade in coffee and sesame, likely increasing incomes. Kenya’s Rift Valley and Central regions have benefited from AGRA and EU-backed irrigation and market access projects, supporting wage growth in horticulture and dairy. In Ghana’s Northern and Brong-Ahafo regions, MCC and Feed the Future investments have enhanced productivity in cocoa and staple crops, lifting salaries. Rwanda’s Southern and Eastern provinces have seen similar effects from Western-backed agricultural modernisation and GDP growth. 

In Sierra Leone, by contrast, reliance on rice imports (a grain it once exported) has led to a $200 million yearly loss, with some blaming IMF policies. President Julius Bio has secured investments to boost rice yields, but modernisation efforts often sideline small-scale farmers. In a continent whose economic activity is largely dependent on agriculture, modernisation is advancing, albeit unevenly. 

The adoption of modern tools—drip irrigation, mechanised equipment, and digital applications to access markets as well as weather forecasts—is making a difference, but not everywhere. South Africa and Nigeria boast relatively advanced agricultural sectors, for example, but elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, the sector depends mainly on smallholder farming with limited access to modern technology.

Food Security Failure: Population Boom and Food-for-Export

Despite these efforts, however, per capita production has stagnated or even declined in some areas due to rapid population growth. While maize yields have doubled in certain AGRA-supported nations, for example, food security has not kept pace. Furthermore, much of the output is exported rather than bolstering local food supplies. This raises questions for the continent’s food security, as Africa’s population continues to grow and foreign investment means Africa’s growth in agriculture is largely destined for foreign markets.

Debating Agricultural Models 

Modernisation strategies (as articulated by the Nairobi Declaration, for example) emphasise increasing Africa’s chemical fertiliser use. However, critics warn that industrial agriculture fosters dependence on chemical fertilisers, monocultures vulnerable to global markets, and patented seeds that hurt local self-reliance. Africa’s farmland is already suffering, with an estimated 60-65% degraded due to overgrazing and monoculture farming. Alternative approaches, such as rainwater harvesting and natural pest deterrents, could strengthen food security while minimising harms to the environment. Emerging bio-stimulant technologies may also reduce reliance on chemical fertilisers.

Statement

Africa’s agricultural modernisation is progressing unevenly. While initiatives like CAADP and AGRA boost yields in some regions, per capita production often lags behind population growth, keeping food security a major concern. Foreign investment has surged, with China, Western nations, and Gulf states each pursuing different agricultural models. However, concerns persist over dependency, the effects on the environment and whether modernisation truly benefits African farmers or primarily serves foreign interests.