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The Ramadan Divide: How China and India Treat Islam

The Ramadan Divide: How China and India Treat Islam

The treatment of Muslim communities in China and India frequently comes under scrutiny in the West, often framed within the discourse of human rights violations.

Some critics even go so far as to claim that both nations are engaged in policies resembling ethnic cleansing in regions with significant Muslim populations. While discriminatory policies do exist in practice, it would be too easy to look at the situation just through the lens of human rights or authoritarianism. In both China and India, the issue should be understood not primarily in terms of religious freedom or civil liberties but rather through the prisms of geopolitics, political philosophy, and state cohesion.

A Demographic and Geopolitical Liability?

The demographic and regional distribution of Muslim populations in China and India differ considerably, yet they lead to similar political conclusions: both governments perceive these communities as potential geopolitical vulnerabilities that could be exploited by external rivals.

In China, Muslims constitute between 1.45% and 2% of the total population, which translates to roughly 20.5 to 28.3 million people. For comparison, Catholics account for just 0.34% and Protestants for 2.19%. The primary concern is not their overall numbers but their geographic concentration. In most provinces, the Muslim population remains below 1%. However, two exceptions—Xinjiang (58%) and Qinghai (17.5%)—pose particular challenges. Xinjiang shares a porous border with Central Asia, while Qinghai is adjacent to Tibet, a region with a fraught history of separatist movements. Furthermore, these provinces are rich in critical resources, such as rare earth metals, essential for China’s industrial ambitions.

Beijing’s security calculus is shaped by an enduring historical anxiety: the fear of national fragmentation. This concern dates back to the Warring States period and has remained a central theme in Chinese statecraft. Any factor that threatens national unity is treated as an existential issue. In this context, foreign powers have attempted to exert influence in these regions, whether by invoking human rights concerns or, as in 2021, through the strategic disorder created by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

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