The bargaining power of unskilled and semi-skilled American workers declined while skilled labor, managerial positions, and private capital remained largely unaffected. While the college-educated saw their wages grow starting in the 1980s, those without a higher degree saw theirs stagnate or decrease . While the phenomenon of so-called right-wing populism most definitely cannot be attributed to just one cause, the native American working class’ lessened bargaining power, and thus growing discontent, cannot be overstated as a major contributing factor.
Trump knows this very well, and many of his policies aim to offer relief for this voting block. With his trade policy and the threat of tariffs on certain imports, he aims to bring production back to US soil. Regarding immigration, Trump’s aim is equally clear: to lessen the need for the native working class to compete with immigrants, both legal and illegal. Of course, reducing immigration does not only curb economic fears but also cultural ones. During his first presidential term, Trump attempted to enact many anti-immigration policies, like letting in fewer refugees, a zero-tolerance policy for illegal immigrants and, indeed, reform for legal immigration as well.
However, his political opponents thwarted many of these efforts through legal action, as an unprepared Trump, new to the job, lacked the experience to muster a robust defense. These projects then failed to come to full fruition, best symbolized by the as yet unfinished wall on the southern US border.
Nevertheless, illegal immigration through that border decreased significantly during Trump's first term (2017-2021). In stark contrast, under his successor, Joe Biden, illegal immigration reached record levels. A porous border then most definitely helped get Trump re-elected since, along with high inflation, immigration was the most pressing issue for Trump voters in 2024.
Unlike his 2016 coalition, Trump's current coalition has become broader. This time, tech-business moguls and investors like Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and David Sachs flocked to Trump’s banner. Alienated from the democrats because of their preoccupation with ‘progressive’ issues and stifling regulations, they saw in Trump one who could untie the hands of business and have it compete with other states, most notably China.
However, we can already see the first cracks appearing in the "MAGA" coalition. Trump appears adamant about executing many of the policies from his first term. He has promised to implement what he describes as the "largest domestic deportation operation in American history." That includes plans for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, with a focus on those with criminal records. Changes are also intended regarding legal immigration, such as proposals to restrict pathways to citizenship like asylum, refugee resettlement, and family-based visas, with a preference for merit-based immigration.
The issue regarding so-called H1B visas, by which a foreign worker is allowed to be employed in so-called specialty fields, sparked controversy however.In recent years, around 72% of approved H-1B visas were issued to Indian nationals, which translates to hundreds of thousands of visas annually. That is not surprising. As the world's most populous country, India produces millions of English-speaking citizens educated in STEM fields every year. Trump has named Silicon Valley investor Sriram Krishnan his advisor in matters of Artificial Intelligence. At the same time, Vivek Ramaswamy, former presidential candidate and entrepreneur active in the upcoming Trump administration, advocated for H-1B visas, emphasizing their importance for innovation and economic growth in the tech sector. As an observant reader may notice from the names of the aforementioned gentlemen, they are both of Indian ancestry.
Elon Musk has also weighed in, supporting the importance of these visas. Indeed, Elon Musk is an immigrant as well, as he is originally from South Africa. However, vocal opposition has emerged from the more nationalist segments of the MAGA coalition, which broadcast their discontent mostly on Musk's own social network, X The two sides of the argument could be summarised as follows: The Musk-Ramaswamy side argues that in order to strengthen the American economy and maintain its competitiveness in the global market, enlarging its pool of highly intelligent, ambitious, and hard-working people by those who have been born overseas, but who nevertheless desire to live and work in the United States, will be a net positive for all. Highly skilled workers, as tax-paying citizens would, so the argument goes, not burden the welfare system or commit crimes.
Therefore, one can oppose such immigration only on racist grounds. Surely, the policy would not have caused such a storm if 70% of those arriving through H1B visas were of European ancestry. The other side of the argument would be that a nation is not an economic zone but an ethnocultural entity that one can not enter simply because he is able to code or perform some other form of skilled labor, coincidentally also for lower wages than the natives (which of course suits employers just fine).
If a nation lacks a supply of highly skilled workers its economy needs, it should find them among its own population, and create those conditions which makes educating oneself in such fields an appealing notion. Other considerations apart from raw economics, such as preserving the ethno-cultural character of a nation, are legitimate.
Essentially, there might be a fear among certain members of the MAGA coalition that while Trump would slash the competition in the labor market coming from illegal immigrants, white working-class people would soon find themselves in the employ of a newly imported class of entrepreneurs, perhaps from India. So far, Trump appears to take the side of Musk and Ramaswamy in the matter. Observing how discussion over this issue will evolve after Trump retakes office will be most interesting indeed.
