Rhetoric or Realpolitik? Inside Visegrád’s Conservatism’s Laboratory

Not all of Europe had fallen to liberal globalism, appeared to be their message. But how much truth is there to Visegrád’s ostensible success story? Might it just be a lovely fairytale conservatives tell themselves before turning in?

Fear and Trembling

On November 11th, 2023, Warsaw set the stage for a spectacle. At the Palace of Culture and Science, thousands had gathered for Poland’s Independence Day. Flares lit up the sky, flags were waved, the atmosphere was nothing short of electric. This nationalist march, which saw Polish patriots being flanked by other patriots visiting from other European nations, could very well have been the start of a new International—not for the left this time, but for the right. It proved that Visegrád countries, Poland especially, had become a rallying point for conservatives. Western media predictably sounded the alarm, decrying these “fascists in the streets!” Conservatives, on the other hand, saw a resistance movement, living proof that traditional Europe was alive and fighting back.

About one month later, Donald Tusk took power. Panic and outrage, even despair, took hold of some members among the rightist commentariat. Was this election but an aberration, or was it revealing a profounder shift? Are Eastern and Central Europe moving to the left as the West swung to the right, bearing all the hallmarks of a backlash?

In Poland, two worlds have collided, as conservatives and liberals are locked in open confrontation. Warsaw’s LGBTQ+ contingent was already well-represented, even under the rule of the rightist party PiS; rainbow flags are visible throughout the city. Yet, while only 29% of Poles support the LGBTQ+ movement, a significant portion of that support in Warsaw comes from the country’s elite. But they make the most noise. Aggressive, and fiercely anti-conservative, they enjoy strong backing from the EU deep state.

Europe’s Birth Rate Crisis: Poland, A Lesson in What Not to Do

For Europe, birth rates are an existential issue. Aging populations threaten economic stability, welfare systems, and long-term growth. Conservatives recognise the crisis, but their solutions are at times poorly thought through.

Take the example of Poland. The PiS, eager to build a conservative stronghold, launched aggressive natalist policies: the banning of abortion went hand in hand with an overall promotion of Catholic family values. The result was a social disaster, as one crucial factor had been forgotten, namely those who actually bear the children: women. Left-wing lobbies seized upon this grave oversight, framing it as a women’s rights issue. Young Polish women, to a great extent already influenced by modern Western culture through consumption of digital media, thus were alienated even more from PiS.

And despite the government’s introduction of the 500+ program, whereby families were given 500 zloty ($130) per child every month, it did little in affecting the birthrate. It turned out that financial incentives and a superficial espousal of Catholic dogma did little in persuading citizens to multiply. The roots of the problem remained unaddressed.

Conservatives, one could argue, therefore are lacking in sociological awareness. Mere rhetoric won’t change reality. A simpler approach presents itself: since today’s women value their independence and the careers which facilitate it, why not make that fact work in one’s own favour? An elevation of motherhood, not portrayed as a duty but as a trendy status symbol, whilst reinforcing responsible fatherhood, might have done the trick. Instead, PiS turned family policy into a battlefield, and turned women against them.

Meanwhile, Hungary’s pro-natalist policies under Orban show mixed results: fertility rose briefly from 1.23 in 2011 to 1.59 in 2020, only to go down, back to 1.36. It was the same story as Poland’s, more money does not equal more children. Tax cuts, home loans, none had much effect. Should conservatives then abandon pro-natalist policies? Not necessarily, and it would be akin to criminal negligence to do so. But Visegrád conservatives forgot one thing: they are fighting in a Europe whose values are now profoundly shaped by Brussels’ progressive elites. These values aren’t just tolerated, they are embraced. Ignoring them or pushing back against them is a recipe for political disaster.

The real challenge then lies in figuring out whether working within these values and subtly reshaping them is a viable strategy or just wishful thinking. While the idea of subverting from within sounds appealing, history offers few clear success stories. Can conservatives navigate this terrain without triggering a social crisis of unprecedented scale? This remains an open question.

The secret could very well be to just make one’s pro-natalist aims more appealing and remove for the citizenry as many obstacles as possible. Soft power, the art of persuasion, dare we say marketing, becomes then the name of the game. If AI does away with so-called ‘bullshit jobs’, people could have more time for what really matters: family, tradition, and real life. Perhaps the solutions aren’t behind, but ahead of us. Europe stands on the brink of a revolution as impactful as the Industrial Revolution. But will conservatives adapt, or stick to tactics that have gone way past their sell by date? Maybe the real answer lies in blending the old with the new.

Room for improvement

And yet, the results speak for themselves. The illiberal policies of Orbán, Fico, and PiS have, against all odds, pulled young voters to the right. In Hungary, Jobbik rose among students. Even Tusk, the liberal rival, gave in; in December 2024, his government greenlighted a strict immigration policy, temporarily suspending asylum rights for those who have entered the country illegally. Visegrád, then, stands firm.

And Western Europe follows their lead. Marine Le Pen’s RN in France, AfD in Germany, Meloni’s Fratelli d'Italia in Italy, all echo Visegrád’s populism, anti-liberalism, Euroscepticism, and pro-natalism. Without Central Europe, the right’s unified rhetoric wouldn’t exist. If this bloc has achieved one thing, it’s having brought together a pan-European conservative resistance to liberal Brussels.

But mere speeches don’t translate into victories. The PiS is no longer in power, Hungary’s and Slovakia’s fertility figures have stagnated or declined. To be sure, populists win elections, but where are the long term effects?

Conservatives, then, if they want to lead, and want to make a lasting change, need more than just populism. These parties need to adopt a strong, holistic approach to the challenges Europe faces. Conservative values alone won’t reverse demographic decline, restore economic stability, or counteract Brussels’ liberal dominance. The Visegrád bloc must then evolve. It’s not enough to rage against modernity, they must understand it, use it, and reshape it from within. Conservative parties need to bring to the fight more than nostalgia for the past and defiance. They need a comprehensive strategy. It is therefore incumbent upon them to crack the code of modern society or be swept away by its current.

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