Who Will Be the Next Pope?

An old saying warns that he who enters a conclave as pope leaves it as a cardinal. While the adage is meant to temper both speculation and ambition, history suggests that whatever name is whispered in the corridors of the Vatican before a papal election often turns out to be the one chosen.

The process of seeking a successor often begins long before a pontiff’s passing; not out of dissatisfaction per se, but as part of a broader consideration of the Church’s future. The question, then, is not merely who will ascend to the Chair of St. Peter, but which path the Church will take in the years ahead.

The Contenders: Continuity or Change?

Throughout Francis’ pontificate, various names have been floated as potential successors, each representing different priorities within the Church. One leading contender is Cardinal Luis Tagle, a Filipino prelate with strong ties to the globalist, socially progressive vision championed by Francis. As head of Caritas Internationalis and now prefect of the powerful Dicastery for Evangelisation, Tagle’s theological outlook aligns closely with the so-called Bologna School, which interprets the Second Vatican Council as a decisive break with pre-conciliar tradition. His election would signal a desire to continue Francis’ emphasis on social justice, migration, and climate action—issues that have defined the outgoing pontificate.

Another frequently mentioned candidate is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State. A veteran diplomat, Parolin comes from a different tradition—one shaped by figures such as Cardinal Achille Silvestrini, a key architect of the Vatican’s Ostpolitik toward Communist regimes. Parolin represents a more pragmatic and institutionally-minded vision of the Church, seeing it not merely as a spiritual body but also as a diplomatic and political force. His election would suggest a shift toward Vatican realpolitik—perhaps with greater attention to balancing internal Church factions and global geopolitical tensions, an approach some progressives have found lacking in Francis.

A Fractured Church in a Fractured World

Francis’ tenure saw a radical shift in how the Church engaged with the world. By prioritising issues such as social inequality, environmental stewardship, and migration—while also aligning closely with mainstream political and media narratives—he sought to position Catholicism as a progressive force in global affairs. However, in doing so, he often sidelined or downplayed the Church’s supernatural mission, creating friction with more traditional factions. Once fiercely defended institutions like the Pontifical Academy for Life, formerly a bastion of Catholic moral teaching, opened up to critics of traditional doctrine.

This ideological battle will undoubtedly shape the next conclave. Figures like Cardinal Gerhard-Ludwig Müller, former prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, are emblematic of the resistance to Francis’ reforms. Müller frequently clashed with the pope over his pastoral approach, warning against what he saw as a dilution of Catholic doctrine in the name of inclusivity. Though dismissed from his post, Müller remains influential, particularly among conservatives in the U.S. and Latin America, who view him as a champion against what they perceive as the Church’s drift toward secular liberalism.

His candidacy, however, is complicated by his German origins. The German Church, long a financial powerhouse of global Catholicism, is now in freefall—hemorrhaging members, priests, and credibility due to its alignment with progressive state policies. In contrast, the more traditionally minded U.S. Church, while frequently at odds with Rome, has avoided the fate of liberal Protestant denominations by holding firm to doctrinal orthodoxy. The next conclave will thus have to grapple with a crucial question: should the Church continue its attempt to accommodate progressive Western ideologies, or should it refocus on preserving its distinct moral and theological identity, even at the cost of alienating secular elites?

Traditionalism’s Unexpected Revival

For years, the prevailing wisdom was that Catholicism in the West was dying, while the Global South was flourishing. The reality is more complex. In Europe and North America, a traditionalist revival is taking hold, particularly among younger Catholics disillusioned with the perceived vagueness of Vatican leadership. Meanwhile, in Africa and Latin America—long thought to be bastions of Catholic strength—evangelical Protestantism is making serious inroads. In Brazil, once the world’s largest Catholic nation, Pentecostal movements have steadily eroded Catholic dominance, drawing millions of adherents away from the Church.

At the same time, many bishops in Africa and South America have expressed frustration with what they see as ideological imperialism from Rome, particularly concerning gender ideology, LGBTQ issues, and economic policies. While the Synodal Way in Germany pushes for progressive reforms, African bishops have vocally opposed such measures, arguing that the Church should remain rooted in moral clarity rather than following Western secular trends. These tensions will heavily influence the conclave’s direction.

Stability or Confrontation?

The desire for a steady, unifying figure is likely to weigh heavily on the cardinal-electors’ minds. A name frequently mentioned in this context is Cardinal Péter Erdő, the Hungarian prelate with deep theological expertise and extensive experience in the Roman Curia. Elevated to the cardinalate by John Paul II, Erdő commands respect across ideological divides, combining intellectual rigour with diplomatic skill. Hungary’s growing geopolitical importance—positioned between the European Union, the U.S., and Russia—adds another dimension to his candidacy.

Another potential contender is Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, Archbishop of Marseille. Born in Algeria, Aveline has worked extensively on interfaith dialogue and is aligned with Francis’ vision of the Mediterranean as a crossroads of cultures and religions. However, unlike some of Francis’s appointees, he maintains a balanced approach, fostering dialogue without alienating the growing number of traditionalist Catholics in France, a country witnessing both a Catholic revival on the right and increasing secular hostility toward religion.

Finally, there is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, who gained worldwide attention during the Gaza war. His willingness to offer himself as a hostage exchange for Israeli captives earned him significant respect across religious lines. An Italian with deep experience in Middle Eastern geopolitics, he represents a perspective rarely considered in papal elections: that of a Christian leader navigating life as a minority within a Jewish and Islamic context.

The Challenge of Europe and the Future of the Church

One of the next pope’s greatest challenges will be Europe. In many countries, the Church has survived its crisis of faith only by relinquishing its societal influence. Yet, the era of Western secularism may itself be approaching a breaking point. The collapse of the liberal “collective West” has coincided with the decline of the progressive post-Vatican II model of Catholicism. The next pontiff will need to navigate a world where Catholicism is increasingly divided—not just between left and right, but between adaptation and conviction, between diplomacy and doctrinal clarity. The conclave will decide not just a man, but a vision. The choice will shape the future of Catholicism for generations to come.

Statement

The coming conclave will not just select a pope; it will define the Church’s direction in an era of internal fractures and global uncertainty. Will Catholicism continue on its progressive trajectory or return to doctrinal clarity? With traditionalism rising in the West, evangelical competition in the Global South, and a Vatican struggling to balance political accommodation with theological integrity, the next pontiff must restore unity—or risk deepening the crisis. From Tagle’s globalism to Müller’s orthodoxy, from Parolin’s diplomacy to Erdő’s stability, the stakes could not be higher. The Church stands at a defining moment.

Weekly