Has Rome left Europe for Africa?

“Europe is the faith, and the faith Europe,” wrote Hillaire Belloc in “Europe and the Faith,” published in 1920—Since the Catholic author penned these words, much has changed. Today, one might as easily write the same, but of Africa. Rome has left Europe, or rather, Europe has left Rome. The Holy See is now the spiritual capital, not of the West, but of a growing Catholic population in the Global South.

The Christian faith in Europe is in retreat. Across the continent, religious affiliation has steadily dwindled, mirroring broader secularising forces, the impact of globalisation, and the rise of multicultural and multifaith societies. The Catholic decline is precipitous —Germany, for example, saw the Catholic share of its population drop from 46% in 1950 to under 25% in 2022. In 2022, Spain was home to nearly 33 million self-identifying Catholics, though the number of that contingent has been falling since 2013. In Portugal, 80% identified as Catholic in 2021, but only 49% of those aged 18-34 did so by 2023. Meanwhile, the Muslim population has increased throughout Europe.

The causes for Catholicism’s decline are several and long-standing: the prominence of secular education, shifting social values at odds with Church teachings, and a mounting skepticism toward institutional religion, particularly in the wake of the myriad of scandals that have plagued the Church.

But while Europe turns away from the Church, Africa is fast becoming its new center of gravity. The continent’s population reached 1.3 billion in 2020, of which about half was Christian, 17% Catholic, totaling about 236 million persons, amounting to 19% of the world’s total Catholic population, so that, “[b]y 2050, the World Christian Database estimates that African Catholics will make up 32% of the Catholic Church.”

A Pew study which looked at 84 countries with significant Christian populations, found that

“In 35 of those countries, at least two-thirds of all Christians say religion is very important in their lives. All but three of these 35 countries are in sub-Saharan Africa or Latin America. (The three exceptions are the U.S., Malaysia and the Philippines.)”

And,

“Levels of religious salience are particularly high in sub-Saharan Africa: Over 75% in every country surveyed in the region say religion is very important to them…Similarly, in every African country surveyed, more than 60% of Christians say they attend church at least weekly.”

According to the Agenzia Fides 2024 Statistics, “As in previous years, increases [in Catholic population] were registered above all in Africa (+7.271.000) and in America (+5.912.000).”

Church attendance is also robust, with Africa hosting some of the countries with the highest church attendance, according to Word Values Survey data (measured in terms of regular church-goers as a share of baptized Catholics), prominently the Democratic Republic of Congo (although figures for the DRC have to be inferred) and Nigeria:

Graph 1: Most Catholic countries

This translates into actual ordinations: in 2019, Africa surpassed Europe as the leading source of priestly vocations, with 1,600 diocesan priests ordained, compared with just 1,306 in Europe. Nigeria led the way with an impressive 410 new priests—more than any European country. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) followed with 133 ordinations, outpacing every European nation except Italy (317) and Poland (298). Remarkably, only two countries worldwide—India and the United States—ordained more priests than Nigeria that year, each with 415, a mere five more than Africa’s most prolific contributor to the clergy ranks.

Graph 2: Annual diocesan ordinations

This demographic shift is reshaping the Catholic Church and could one day influence its leadership. The successor of Pope Francis will be chosen by a College of Cardinals whose composition he changed dramatically in favor of a stronger presence from the Global South. According to Pew Research from 2023, Cardinals of Sub-Saharan African origin make up 13% of the total, up from 9% in 2013, compared to 39% of Cardinals who are of European origin, down from 52% in 2012. And yet, Africans remain underrepresented. As of the consistory in December 2024, there are 140 cardinals eligible to vote in the next papal conclave, 18 of which are African.

Among the African prelates seen as contenders for the papacy, three figures stand out. Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, now 76, has been a leading name since the 2013 conclave. As a former head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, he is known for championing social justice, environmental stewardship, and reducing poverty—positions that align with Pope Francis’ priorities:

“Living out our faith means actively engaging with the world and supporting those in need. By doing so, we can help address issues of peace, justice and global unity. This charitable work not only benefits those in need but also allows us to embody the values and teachings of the Christian faith in a tangible way.”

His managerial record, however, has drawn criticism.

Another prominent figure is Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, aged 79, a conservative and outspoken defender of traditional doctrine. His positions on liturgy, sexuality, and opposition to progressive reforms have pitted him against Francis’ leadership. Sarah’s approach emphasizes that the faithful cannot stand on any foundation other than the word of God:

“There is no illusion of self-sufficiency, no false sense of security. We are justified only by Christ…Without God’s word, people can think that they live an upright life, but it is illusory…Human reason requires God’s help. Without God, we cannot live any just life, any vital life. We need God.”

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo of the Democratic Republic of Congo, just 64, is also an increasingly influential voice in Africa’s episcopal circles. A veteran of peace negotiations in war zones, he blends a commitment to social justice with more traditional Catholicism.

These candidates embody the Church’s broader ideological divides. In a Church divided over Francis’ leadership, Turkson appeals to those seeking continuity with the Argentinian Pope, whereas Sarah represents the Church’s conservative wing. Ambongo, as a younger alternative, could present a bridge between factions, offering Africa a stronger voice in Rome. Yet his lower international profile may hinder his prospects.

Again, however, given that African Cardinals will be underrepresented in a future conclave, it is not at all a given that the Throne of Peter will receive an African pope. It is, however, likely that the next pontiff will emerge from the Global South.

In any case, as the Church continues to wane in the West while flourishing in Africa, the continent’s influence on her future direction can only be expected to grow.

Summary

Christianity is in decline across Europe, with secularism on the rise. Once-dominant Catholic populations are shrinking. Africa, by contrast, is becoming Catholicism’s new epicenter, with high church attendance and rising ordinations. This shift is reshaping Church leadership, with Africa’s influence in the College of Cardinals growing. While an African pope remains uncertain, the Church’s future is increasingly tied to the Global South.

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