‘The world is moving into a ‘multipolar’ order where no one global power can dominate’ observed Gordon Brown in April 2025. Globalism was the deal of the century: dollar-led, US-protected, nearly a single market. But that era is ending. With Trump’s two presidencies, America has stepped back, shedding its role as a global policeman. Tariffs, trade wars, and geopolitical pressure now mark a shift: the rise of competing empires. The age of global unity gives way to a fragmented world of power blocs.
Fragmentation
Washington has aggressively decoupled from Beijing, erecting tariff barriers. China, in retaliation, has selectively cancelled or refused to renew export licenses for key American companies, notably Boeing, intensifying the tensions. Meanwhile, the European Union navigates a delicate balance, pushing forward a policy of "open strategic autonomy" by carefully “de-risking” its reliance on China through targeted measures—such as the European Chips Act, the Green Deal, and diversified trade partnerships—while still preserving essential trade flows and cautiously avoiding full decoupling.
In this slow-motion global sunset, Trump’s aggressive tariffs are the core act of this geopolitical era. Trade is no longer just economic, it's a strategic game of chess where the blocks strive to defy each other. Supply chains now carefully trail political alignment through selective "friend-shoring," with semiconductor manufacturing shifting away from China towards more trusted allies like Japan and South Korea. Energy corridors reflect the same friction, with Europe replacing Russian gas with Qatari and American LNG.
With these trends, we enter the age of a strategic capitalism, where relationships remain open but under constant pressure, and where autonomy appears as the most important geopolitical factor. ‘Opening the gates’ is no longer the rallying word. A new form of globalisation surfaces, with blocs cooperating selectively while they monitor each other. One new rule is set: never commit to any deal, as nothing is cast in iron, and everything is about pressures, autonomy, and cold wars.
