Hezbollah emerged in 1982 with decisive support from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The group opened fire two days into the conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February.

Hezbollah’s calculation was that entering the war would force Lebanon onto the agenda in US-Iranian negotiations. The group also believed Iranian pressure could secure a more robust ceasefire than the one that took effect in November 2024 after a conflict sparked by the war in Gaza, the officials said.

A Risky Return to War

Hezbollah was mauled in the previous war, which killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah along with about 5,000 fighters and weakened its long-dominant hold over the Lebanese state.

Rearmed with Iranian help, the militant group has used new tactics and drones, surprising many with its capabilities after a fragile 15-month truce during which Hezbollah held fire, even as Israel continued to kill its members.

Hezbollah MP Ibrahim al-Moussawi denied that the group was acting on behalf of Iran when it resumed hostilities, as its opponents claim. He told Reuters that Hezbollah saw a window to “break this vicious cycle ... where the Israelis can target, assassinate, bombard, kill, without any revenge”.

He acknowledged losses and damage in southern Lebanon, but said “you don't go into making calculations of how many are going to be killed” when “pride and sovereignty and independence” are at stake.

Hezbollah’s media office said the figure of several thousand fighters killed in the present war was false.

Although the US-mediated ceasefire that took effect on 16 April has led to a significant reduction in hostilities, Israel and Hezbollah have continued to trade blows in the south, where Israel maintains troops in a self-declared “buffer zone”.

Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said Hezbollah had “shown more resilience than many thought possible, but that was not a strategic gain in itself”.

“The only thing that will contain Israel is a comprehensive US-Iran deal”, he said. “Without a deal, there’s going to be a lot of pain for everyone. At best, a hurting stalemate.”

Fresh Graves Fill Quickly

More than 2,600 people have been killed since fighting began along the Blue Line, the de facto border between Israel and Lebanon, on 2 March. Around a fifth were women, children and medics, Lebanon’s health ministry has reported. Its toll does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Three sources, two of them Hezbollah officials, said the ministry’s figures did not include many of the group’s casualties. They said several thousand Hezbollah fighters had been killed, though the group did not yet have the full picture.

Hezbollah’s media office denied the figures cited by the sources. It also denied that the numbers published by Lebanon’s health ministry included its members killed in Israeli strikes.

One source, a Hezbollah commander, said scores of fighters had gone to the frontline towns of Bint Jbeil and Khiyam intending to fight to the death. Their bodies have yet to be recovered.

In the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, more than two dozen freshly dug graves were quickly filled with fighters’ bodies in the days after the ceasefire took hold. Simple marble tombstones identify some as commanders and others as fighters.

In the southern village of Yater alone, the movement’s council recorded the deaths of 34 Hezbollah fighters.

Lebanon’s Shiite Muslim community has borne the brunt of Israel’s attacks and has been forced to flee into Christian, Druze and other areas, where many blame Hezbollah for starting the war.

Israel has been entrenching its hold over a security zone stretching as far as 10 km into Lebanon and demolishing villages, saying it aims to shield northern Israel from attacks by Hezbollah militants embedded in civilian areas.

An Israeli government official said Hezbollah had abrogated the November 2024 ceasefire by firing on Israeli citizens on 2 March. The threat to northern Israel would be eradicated, the official said, adding that thousands of Hezbollah militants had been killed and that Israel was steadily destroying the group’s infrastructure.

The Israeli military says Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel since 2 March. Israel has announced the deaths of 17 soldiers in southern Lebanon and two civilians in northern Israel.

Citing ongoing Israeli strikes, Hezbollah has called the April ceasefire meaningless and continued to attack.

Iran Will Not Sell Its Friends

A diplomat in contact with Hezbollah described its decision to enter the war as a big gamble and a survival strategy, saying the movement felt it had to be part of the problem so it could be part of an eventual regional solution. It remains to be seen whether the gamble will pay off.

Tehran has demanded that Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah be included in any deal on the wider war. But US President Donald Trump said last month that any deal Washington reaches with Tehran “is in no way subject to Lebanon”.

Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi referred to a 16 April statement in which he said peace in Lebanon was essential to the talks Pakistan was mediating between the United States and Iran.

A Western official said they saw a possibility that the US and Iran might eventually reach a settlement that does not address the war in Lebanon.

Asked about the matter, the US State Department, Iran’s mission to the United Nations in Geneva and the Lebanese government did not immediately comment.

Hezbollah’s Moussawi said a ceasefire in Lebanon continued to be a top priority for Iran, adding that Tehran shared Lebanon’s objectives, including that Israel halt attacks and withdraw from Lebanon. Hezbollah has “full trust in Iran - that the Iranians will not sell their own friends”, he said.

Disarmament Still Off the Table

The US State Department referred to a 27 April interview Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave to Fox News, in which he said Israel had the right to defend itself against Hezbollah’s attacks and that he did not think Israel wanted to maintain its buffer zone in Lebanon indefinitely. The United States has urged Israel “to make sure their responses are proportional and targeted”, he said.

When the ceasefire was announced on 16 April, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Hezbollah’s disarmament would be a fundamental demand in peace talks with Lebanon.

Hezbollah has ruled out disarmament, saying the matter of its weapons is a topic for national dialogue. Any move by Lebanon to disarm the group by force would risk igniting conflict in a country shattered by civil war from 1975 to 1990.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have sought Hezbollah’s peaceful disarmament since last year. On 2 March, the government banned the group’s military activities.

Hezbollah has demanded that the government cancel the decision and end its direct talks with Israel.

Lebanese officials believe direct talks with Israel under US auspices are the best way to secure a lasting ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli troops, as only Washington has enough leverage with Israel to achieve those aims.

(reuters, sab)