Russia is intensifying hybrid operations and military posturing along NATO’s eastern flank, with the Baltic states emerging as the most vulnerable targets. Intelligence reports from Latvia and Poland warn of potential provocations aimed at testing Western resolve and deterring further support for Ukraine. At the same time, Belarus has begun summoning men previously deemed unfit for peacetime service, raising questions about Minsk’s role in any wider conflict.
European Intelligence Warnings
On 1 July, the Kremlin’s decision to close several railway crossings on the borders with Finland, Estonia and Latvia took effect. Moscow informed Helsinki, Tallinn and Riga of its decision but did not specify the reason.
In late June, The Guardian, citing sources from Latvian and another NATO intelligence agency, reported that Russia may be preparing a military provocation on NATO’s eastern flank. According to the website, Poland and the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – are at risk.
Such a move could be intended to test the willingness of the US to stand by its Eastern European allies. However, it could also be an attempt to deter European countries from aiding Ukraine, which has gained the upper hand on the front lines this year and whose drone attacks in recent weeks have disrupted fuel supplies to Russia and the occupied territories.
Latvian intelligence told Fox News Digital that Russia could resort to “hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems”, adding that Moscow is currently unable to open a second front or launch a full-scale ground offensive.
Some Eastern European leaders no longer take Washington’s support in the event of a Russian threat for granted. Contrary to the Latvian assessment, Estonian intelligence reported in February that Moscow will not attack the Baltic states or any other part of the Alliance for at least the next year or two.
Meanwhile, Pawel Szota, head of Polish foreign intelligence, warned in late June of a growing risk of Russian provocations on NATO’s eastern flank. He described the deployment of so-called “little green men” – Russian soldiers or armed operatives without identifying insignia – as one possible scenario. According to Szota, such a move could be intended to escalate the conflict in response to Russian setbacks on the front lines in Ukraine.
Baltic States Under Threat
US Colonel Douglas Mastriano also fears such a scenario, although he believes any Baltic operation would likely be carried out by “civilian-clothed Russian Special Forces and not ‘little green men’ as seen in Crimea”.
If the country targeted by limited cross-border operations – or even NATO itself – failed to respond decisively against local separatists or Russians claiming to be persecuted civilians, Moscow would retain plausible deniability and the option to distance itself from those involved.
According to Mastriano, however, any hesitation could allow the hybrid conflict to escalate into an invasion, with the protection of the Russian minority serving as a pretext. In late May, the Kremlin announced that it would appeal to the UN to protect Russians in the Baltic states. Moscow accuses the three countries of rewriting history, restricting the Russian language and pursuing other alleged policies that violate the rights of the Russian minority.
In April, Sergei Shoigu, secretary of the Russian Security Council and former defense minister, stated that Article 51 of the UN Charter, which governs the right to self-defense, could be invoked. He argued that Ukrainian drones were attacking Russian territory through the airspace of Finland and the Baltic states.
In May, Russia also adopted amendments allowing Russian President Vladimir Putin to deploy troops abroad “to protect Russian citizens". In Narva, Estonia – the easternmost city in the European Union – around half of the 53,000 residents hold Russian citizenship.
In addition to regularly accusing Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of oppressing the Russian minority, Russian officials have also claimed that Finland is becoming a “hotbed of fascism”. In Lithuania's case, Russia has even questioned the legitimacy of the country's statehood.
Drones Above All Else
The Baltic states are frequently identified as the most likely flashpoint for a potential escalation of the conflict between Europe and Russia. The possibility of separatist activity in Narva also features prominently in such assessments. Olexandr Jabcanka, a captain in the Ukrainian 108th Independent Assault Battalion, known as Da Vinci’s Wolves, believes the risks facing the Baltic states are greater than many observers acknowledge.
Like the Ukrainian military, the Russian armed forces are among the world’s leaders in the use of modern unmanned aerial drones. While saboteurs along NATO's borders would probably not have access to operational or strategic drones, they could still deploy tactical systems.
Tactical drones can be used for reconnaissance, suicide missions or attack operations. During a presentation at the GLOBSEC conference in Prague on 22 May, outlining a possible crisis scenario, Jabcanka argued that, based on the experience of the Russia-Ukraine war, a handful of drone operators could establish a “death zone”, shaped like an imaginary circle with a diameter of more than 20 km, around a captured border village.
“20, 30 km… At ground zero, there’s a 98% probability that your car or armored vehicle will be destroyed. Only infantry can survive there, provided the soldier is well-hidden. But a soldier needs ammunition, food, and water”, said the Ukrainian captain, describing the situation in the death zone.
Jabcanka argued that Ukrainian-allied military exercises involving Ukraine's allies have repeatedly shown that NATO forces are not prepared for modern drone warfare. He said that if commanders were unwilling to use artillery or air power against a village with civilians, they would struggle to penetrate the death zone and retake the village.
“I’m not saying that’s how it will be. I don’t understand anything about international politics. But from a technical standpoint, the Russians can handle it with ease. That’s why I’m talking about it – to reduce the chances that it will actually happen”, Jabcanka added in conclusion.
Former Ukrainian drone commander Ilya Sekirin also highlighted the growing importance of drones. He believes Russia could even wage a full-scale war primarily through drone operations against an opponent that had failed to integrate drones into its armed forces. According to him, the Russians would not need to amass equipment at the border. Instead, it could covertly deploy elite drone operators in civilian vehicles.
Sekirin serves as an advisor to the Ukrainian High Command and, in 2026, published the English-language book The Rise of the Machines: Drone Warfare in the Russian-Ukrainian War – Tactics, Operations, and Strategy. He argues that 10,000 to 20,000 drone operators could disable NATO units in the Baltics while sustaining minimal losses.
Has the Ground Been Laid?
The Dossier Center (Center Dosie), a Russian investigative center in exile, published an extensive report earlier this year on the creation of a network of Kremlin collaborators in the Baltic states. In some cases, the report's claims have been reinforced by the confessions of individuals who admitted intending to cooperate with Russian intelligence.
However, such cases are not always straightforward. While preparing a report on the Narva People’s Republic (NPR) in March, Statement contacted a source familiar with the situation in the Baltic states. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source suggested that the "NPR campaign" might have originated not only with the Kremlin but also with the Estonian Internal Security Service (KAPO).
“If the ‘NPR operation’ originates not from the Kremlin but from KAPO, then a successful outcome could allow Estonian authorities to identify pro-Kremlin sympathizers and potential collaborators – although sleeper agents in the country would not fall for such a trap”, the source explained.
On the evening of 30 June, the first reports emerged that men in Belarus who had previously been deemed unfit for peacetime military service had begun receiving summonses for medical examinations. Under Belarusian law, these men remain part of the reserves during peacetime despite being exempt from compulsory military service.
Following a medical examination, they may legally be called up for military service in the event of war. However, Minsk has not explained the reason for the move. It may reflect an effort to strengthen Belarus's own defense capabilities or preparations for a wider role in the Russia-Ukraine war. Belarus also shares borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. During a speech in Grodno on 6 June, President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarusian troops would not participate in direct combat operations in Ukraine.