Rather than pushing Russia toward concessions, they appear to reinforce support for a more determined offensive against both Ukraine and the Western countries supplying it with weapons and other forms of assistance. For now, however, Putin seems to believe that by avoiding a wider escalation he can eventually achieve his objectives through sustained military pressure.

Over the weekend, Moscow announced the capture of Kostiantynivka. Russia has therefore moved closer to one of its principal military objectives. Kostiantynivka is one of the key strongholds on Ukraine's Donbas defensive line, and its capture would remove one of the last major obstacles to Russian control over the remainder of the Donetsk region.

This would also strengthen Russia's position in any future peace negotiations. Even if Moscow has no intention of permanently occupying additional territory, further advances would provide greater leverage at the negotiating table. With each passing month, the territory under Russian control continues to expand while Ukraine's negotiating position weakens – a trend that, with occasional exceptions, has largely persisted since the beginning of the full-scale invasion four years ago.

A Rift Called Poland

As if that were not enough, Zelensky has also strained relations with Poland – a country that has supplied a substantial share of Western military aid, particularly tanks, armored vehicles and aircraft. Poland regards itself as Ukraine's second-most important supporter after the US, although in recent years it has increasingly found itself competing with Germany for that role.

Since the start of the war, Poland has also received more Ukrainian refugees than any other country. Warsaw argues that this makes it one of Ukraine's largest supporters overall, with assistance amounting to nearly 5% of GDP, of which more than 4% has been spent on supporting refugees. It also remains an indisputable fact that the overwhelming majority of Western military and humanitarian aid reaches Ukraine through Polish territory.

Polish-Ukrainian relations have long been shaped by difficult historical memories. Many Ukrainians view Poland as a former colonial power that oppressed them politically, religiously and linguistically. Many Poles, meanwhile, continue to remember the massacres of the 1940s, when tens of thousands of ethnic Poles living in what is now western Ukraine were killed.

In Volhynia alone, more than 100,000 people were murdered between 1943 and 1945. Those responsible are regarded in Poland as war criminals, while many Ukrainians continue to view them as heroes of the struggle for national independence. Statues of Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych continue to be erected in Ukraine.

Today, the leaders of both countries seek to emphasize a shared history of resisting Russian imperial rule. Yet that narrative carries far less weight in Ukraine. As Kyiv searches for the remaining human, material and ideological resources needed to sustain the war, it increasingly returns to these controversial historical figures for inspiration. In recent months, however, many Poles believe it has gone too far.

It began in May, when the Ukrainian government exhumed the remains of Andriy Melnyk in Luxembourg. Melnyk led one faction of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-M), which competed with Bandera's faction for German support during the Second World War. His remains were reburied in Kyiv with full state honors in the presence of President Zelensky.

In June, the Ukrainian government named one of its elite military units "Heroes of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army", referring to the UPA associated with Bandera's movement.

When Polish protests failed to change Kyiv's position, President Karol Nawrocki revoked the Order of the White Eagle, Poland's highest state honor, which had been awarded to Zelensky three years earlier by President Andrzej Duda. Such a move is exceptionally rare in international relations and represents a profound diplomatic rupture. When France revoked Bashar al-Assad's Legion of Honor in 2018, it had already severed diplomatic relations with Syria and was openly supporting efforts to remove him from power.

Zelensky responded by returning Poland's highest honor to Warsaw. The gesture resonated strongly in Ukraine. A number of prominent Ukrainian figures followed suit, including military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and former President Petro Poroshenko.

A similar reaction followed in Poland, where recipients also began returning Ukrainian decorations. Prime Minister Donald Tusk initially criticized Nawrocki's decision. However, as public anger toward Ukraine grew, the government shifted its tone. Through Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, Warsaw warned Kyiv that continued glorification of Bandera would make Polish support for Ukraine's EU accession impossible. With parliamentary elections approaching next autumn, Tusk knows that campaigning on a "Ukraine First" platform would carry significant political risks.

Poland’s Patience Runs Thin

The deterioration in relations extends beyond symbolism. In May, a Polish company lost a contract to build a major waste-to-energy plant in Lviv despite international arbitration proceedings and intervention by the Polish government. For many Polish businesses, the case reinforced a growing perception that they are no longer welcome in Ukraine.

The planned exchange of nine Polish MiG-29 fighter jets for Ukrainian drone technology also collapsed. Earlier this year, Poland offered the aircraft in return for Ukrainian expertise that Warsaw hoped would help develop its own drone forces. In June, Kyiv informed Poland that it could not provide the promised cooperation, although Ukraine has continued offering drone partnerships to Gulf states. Warsaw subsequently halted the transfer of the aircraft. A Ukrainian military officer later suggested that Ukrainian drones could just as easily reach Poland.

For now, a common enemy prevents the dispute from escalating further.

Ukraine assumes Poland will avoid any confrontation that could weaken resistance against Russia in the short term. Whether that calculation remains valid in the years ahead is another matter.

If current trends continue, Ukraine – or at least the part that survives the war – may find itself facing an adversarial Russia to the east and deeply damaged relations with Poland to the west.