The diplomatic establishment led by Rubio — in which the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) also plays a key role — is instead pursuing a more gradual approach. It combines tighter sanctions against the communist government, the military and its business conglomerate GAESA with promises of US investment in exchange for market liberalization or other concessions.
On 11 July, Rubio accused Havana's ruling elite of refusing to implement reforms in order to preserve its grip on power while remaining committed to what he described as a morally bankrupt Marxist ideology. However, this did not appear to be an obstacle in Caracas, where Vice President Delcy Rodríguez continues to serve as one of the country's leading political figures.
Pentagon officials acknowledged that military action against the island, located only about 145 km from Florida, is unlikely. Nevertheless, intelligence agencies are examining reports that Havana has acquired hundreds of Russian drones, which could theoretically be used against the US naval base at Guantánamo Bay.
Washington has repeatedly described the Cuban government as the “head of the snake” behind efforts to export revolution across Latin America. It also notes that, of the approximately 100 people killed in the military operation in Venezuela, around 30 were Cubans who had served as bodyguards to Rodríguez's former superior, Nicolás Maduro.
In March, Havana also hosted a meeting between members of the Cuban Politburo and radical left-wing and progressive activists from the US who maintain a financial network of dark money through the American consulting firm Arabella Advisors.
Neville Roy Singham, an American billionaire with ties to Beijing, sent his close associate Vijay Prashad, director of the Tricontinental Institute, to the gathering. Prashad described it as a meeting of an “international people's assembly”.
Havana is the starting point for networks that extend to Singham and the Soros family, then to funds managed by Arabella Advisors and ultimately to Antifa activists, who according to the report have organized armed resistance to migrant deportations since last spring.
Rubio's strategy of applying diplomatic pressure rather than risking American lives may yet prove effective. As early as 20 May, Cuban Minister of Energy and Mining Vicente de la O Levy warned that the island had exhausted its supplies of gasoline and heating oil, while daily power outages lasted up to 22 hours. A prolonged economic crisis could therefore increase pressure on Havana without requiring military intervention.
Relying on diplomatic pressure in Cuba also gives Trump and Hegseth greater flexibility to deploy forces off the Iranian coast, where a larger military commitment is likely to become necessary if the ceasefire collapses. American generals have repeatedly warned that the only alternative to another prolonged stalemate would be a ground invasion – an operation they have described as “hell on earth”.
Cuba Says It Poses No Threat
The Pentagon would also need the US Army's 101st Airborne Division on the opposite side of the world, making a military operation against Cuba considerably less likely for now. The Cuban government has not commented on the latest reports about the contingency plans.
Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla most recently responded to similar reports published in May, describing the fuel blockade as genocidal. Havana has also rejected allegations that Russian drones stationed on the island pose a threat to Florida. Earlier reporting suggested the allegations could be used as a pretext for military action.
Following CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Havana in May, the Cuban government reiterated that the island poses no threat to US national security. In an interview with the Los Angeles Times in May, Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío also argued that an invasion would result in bloodshed, “mostly of Cubans, but also of Americans”.
At the same time, he acknowledged that “my generation grew up preparing for U.S. military aggression because the threat has always been there”.
“We are prepared to pay the maximum price if we have to defend our country”, de Cossío added.
He also rejected what he described as Washington's ambitions in the region.
“The US, which was born out of a rebellion against a foreign power, wants to claim sovereignty over the whole hemisphere. I reject that. This doesn’t mean that we cannot work on friendly terms with the United States, that we cannot build a very good relationship”, he said.
