American Conservative: West Derailed Ukraine Peace

A 40-day Ukrainian drone campaign ordered by Volodymyr Zelensky in June to pressure Russia to end the war failed to achieve its goal, according to Ted Snider in The American Conservative.

Snider argues that Russia instead exploited Ukrainian shortages in manpower and air defense to strengthen its position, including by advancing toward Kostyantynivka.

Ukraine is also running short of Patriot interceptors and struggling to shoot down a new jet-powered model of Russia’s Geran drone, which Snider says is damaging infrastructure at the port of Odesa.

He contrasts Ukraine’s current position with the spring of 2022, when Kyiv and Moscow made substantial progress toward a possible negotiated settlement in Istanbul.

Former Ukrainian negotiator Oleksiy Arestovych said the proposed agreement was “90% prepared”, while other members of the negotiating team said the two sides had come close to a settlement. Davyd Arakhamia, who led Ukraine’s delegation, said Russia had been prepared to end the war if Ukraine committed to remaining outside NATO.

Snider argues that the prospective deal fell apart after intervention by Western powers, particularly the US and UK. He cites accounts that then-British prime minister Boris Johnson urged Ukraine not to sign an agreement and to continue fighting, while Western governments declined participating in security guarantees alongside Russia.

Snider also cites former mediators Naftali Bennett and Gerhard Schröder, as well as Swiss diplomat Jean-Daniel Ruch, as evidence that the US and UK discouraged a settlement. Bennett later qualified his account, saying he was unsure whether a deal had ultimately been possible.

Snider argues that Russia’s continuing advances will eventually force Ukraine back to the negotiating table, where it is likely to face less favorable terms than those available in 2022. He concluded that “it is time to apologize to Ukrainians for pushing them off the path of negotiations in the first months of the war”.

(max)