Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said Russia was launching small numbers of jet-powered drones in waves to paralyze Kyiv. He argued that Moscow currently lacks the resources to deploy large numbers of them at once and is instead seeking to exhaust both the air defense system and the civilian population.

The tactic was particularly evident on 27 August, when groups of drones approached the capital throughout the day. The attacks disrupted trains, public transport and businesses as residents were repeatedly forced to seek shelter.

The threat of follow-up strikes has also complicated the work of emergency crews. Firefighters responding to attacks in the Kyiv region have at times been forced to withdraw temporarily because of the risk of another strike.

The Interceptor Shortage

Ukraine can intercept Russian ballistic missiles, but the weapons needed to do so remain in short supply. During the broader Russian assault on 27 August, Ukrainian forces shot down seven ballistic missiles, an improved interception rate after Zelensky said the country had received a small batch of US-made Patriot interceptors.

Ukraine nevertheless remains heavily dependent on the Patriot system, while global supplies of its interceptor missiles are limited.

The war with Iran had already begun putting additional pressure on Ukraine’s air defense supplies in March. Patriot interceptors were being used in large numbers in the Middle East, while the US military shifted high-end air defense missiles from Europe and other regions to US Central Command. By late March, the Pentagon was also considering diverting interceptors ordered for Ukraine under a NATO program through which allies purchase US weapons for Kyiv, although NATO said essential equipment was still reaching Ukraine.

The pressure on supplies was evident from the opening days of the conflict. Reuters reported on 4 March that Ukraine risked a critical shortage of US air defense missiles as Patriot interceptors were consumed defending Gulf states against Iranian ballistic missiles and drones.

Kyiv is trying to reduce that dependence. On 6 August, Zelensky said the Freyja program, a joint European project to develop an anti-ballistic missile defense system, was already under way with 10 countries involved.

Ukrainian defense company Fire Point is supplying its FP-7.X interceptor and integrating it with European radar, guidance and command systems. The company is aiming for the project’s first successful ballistic missile interception by mid-2027.

The Belarus Route

Many of the new drones are also taking an unusual route to Kyiv.

An investigation published in June identified a network of Russian infrastructure supporting drone operations near the Belarusian border, including at least five airfields and launch complexes in the Smolensk, Bryansk and Oryol regions of western Russia.

Beskrestnov said hundreds of jet-powered Shaheds heading for Kyiv have avoided the shortest route to the Ukrainian capital and instead remained close to the Belarusian border for as long as possible.

He believes the drones may be exploiting Belarusian civilian communications infrastructure. Their LTE modems, he suggested, could be connecting to Belarusian mobile base stations as they follow the border, potentially helping them maintain communications or navigate.

For now, however, that explanation remains a theory. There is no independent confirmation that Belarusian mobile networks are being used in this way.

A Wider War of Attrition

The sustained pressure on Kyiv comes as Moscow threatens a renewed assault on Ukraine’s energy system ahead of winter.

On 30 August, the Russian Defense Ministry said its forces had begun preparing large-scale strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities, describing them as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure and Russia’s fuel and energy sector.

Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal told Politico in early August that Moscow was seeking to cripple Ukraine’s energy system, economy and weapons production and to use another difficult winter to increase pressure on the population and the government.

Russia has also stepped up attacks on the country’s commercial and logistics infrastructure. Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky said in late August that Russian strikes had destroyed roughly 90% of the food logistics networks operated by Ukrainian retail chains.

That does not mean Russia has destroyed 90% of Ukraine’s total food storage capacity. Vysotsky said retailers were reorganizing their supply chains and warned that consumers could see a smaller range of products in some stores, but that there was no threat of famine.

The attacks on warehouses, retailers, postal depots and energy facilities are placing growing strain on the systems that keep Ukrainian cities functioning. For Kyiv, the challenge is therefore no longer simply to stop individual drones and missiles. It is to preserve enough air defense capacity to withstand a sustained campaign against both the capital and the country’s civilian infrastructure.