European sanctions against Russia are not only failing to have the desired effect, but are even being circumvented by Ukraine itself due to economic realities.
The European Union began imposing sanctions on Russia after Russia's attack on Ukraine. The economic pressure exerted by the Union was aimed at ending the military conflict as quickly as possible by making the war “too expensive” for the aggressor.
On a theoretical level, based on figures and analytical estimates by European officials, this seemed to be the case. However, on a practical level, given the economic and energy networks of countries that use cheap Russian resources, it is clear that these were rather naive ideas.
The EU is currently preparing its 19th package of sanctions against Russia. The sequence of this package alone shows how ineffective the European Community's efforts have been so far.
The new measures provide for the introduction of tariffs and import bans on Russian products, as well as measures against companies from other countries that are involved in circumventing the restrictions. The sanctions are also intended to target Russia's “shadow fleet,” which circumvents the current restrictions and enables Russia to export oil all over the world.
Russia effectively circumvents sanctions
Russia's export and sale of oil is considered a decisive factor in financing the entire military operation in Ukraine. Restricting oil trade would therefore mean such a significant decline in revenue that the Russian Federation would be forced to at least limit its military actions, if not cease them altogether.
Several sanctions have already been imposed on Russian oil trading, both by the EU and the US. However, it is by no means easy to restrict the sale of a cheap strategic commodity worldwide. Russia is finding ways to circumvent the restrictions through third countries such as India and China, which buy Russian oil at reduced prices, refine it, and then export the refined products back around the world.
This scheme shows that the sanctions imposed have only a minimal impact on Russian oil trade, and furthermore, Ukraine is also highly dependent on the export and purchase of Russian oil.
In addition to China, India is also an important country for the massive purchase of Russian oil.
India has become a massive importer of Russian oil
In the first 20 days of August 2025, India imported 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil per day, which is unchanged from July but slightly below the average of 1.6 million barrels per day for the period from January to June.
Russian oil now accounts for nearly 40 percent of India's total oil purchases, whereas this trade relationship was virtually non-existent before the war in Ukraine began. India's purchases are led by billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries, which operates the world's largest refinery complex.
Analysts expect Russian oil exports to India to rise in September, even though the US has imposed tariffs of up to 50 percent on Indian imports as a countermeasure to the purchase of Russian oil.
US officials have accused India of profiting from cheap Russian oil, while Indian officials have accused the West of double standards, as the European Union and the US continue to buy billions of dollars worth of Russian goods. Since the beginning of 2022, the EU has imported goods worth €297 billion from Russia, including Russian oil.
Ukraine is heavily dependent on Indian oil imports
However, India is not only a major importer of Russian oil, but also the largest supplier of heating oil to Ukraine, accounting for up to 15.5 percent of imports of this commodity. India achieved this leading position in July 2025, when it became the largest oil supplier to the embattled country.
According to Ukrainian oil market analysis company NaftoRynok, daily deliveries averaged 2,700 tons, which is among India's highest monthly export figures this year.
Despite the fact that India imports exceptionally large quantities of oil from Russia, oil deliveries to Ukraine are already referred to as “fuel of Indian origin” and are mainly imported into the country by tankers via the Danube from Romania.
Due to the military conflict with Russia, Ukraine is highly dependent on fuel supplies, which leads to a paradoxical situation in overall trade relations.
Ukraine, a victim of Russian aggression, thus becomes an indirect consumer of Russian oil. The Ukrainian economy is dependent on fuel imports because its own refineries have been destroyed or restricted in their function by the war.
Paradoxes of sanctions against Russia
The West has imposed sanctions on Russian oil so that Russia cannot finance the war through its sale. However, Russia easily circumvents these sanctions by selling oil to other world powers that are not subject to the original sanctions.
India and China then supply products made from Russian oil directly or indirectly to Western countries, closing a complicated trade system.
Instead of effectively ending the war, the sanctions have thus created a whole new ecosystem of trade relations that paradoxically weakens the established and regulated international relations that existed until now.
Russian oil is cheap, so countries buy it and use it to their advantage. This is a clear circumvention of the sanctions, but the economic reality of the world simply leaves no other choice. Ironically, Ukraine has also been brought back to harsh reality, as it must participate in circumventing the sanctions against Russia in order to function as a state at all.
This circumvention is therefore not the result of ignorance or unintentional action on Ukraine's part – it is an economic necessity. Ukraine does not have the capacity to track the origin of every single barrel, and Indian diesel is cheap thanks to the Russian discount.
The whole process highlights the weakness of the sanctions. Russia continues to profit from oil sales, albeit indirectly. The global media points out that “Ukraine runs on Indian diesel,” which is refined from Russian oil.
Another extraordinary contradiction is that the US's efforts to punish India for importing Russian oil ultimately hurt Ukraine and its ability to effectively resist Russian military attacks the most. Without fuel, this is simply not possible.
The ineffectiveness of the sanctions thus has extraordinary geopolitical consequences.
Russia maintains its economic stability, which prolongs the war. India benefits economically from buying cheap Russian oil, but this exacerbates economic tensions with the US. The US punishes India with extraordinary tariffs and, in doing so, also punishes Ukraine. However, in doing so, they risk driving up global oil prices, which also fuels inflation in the US and increases the volatility of the overall market.
Finally, Ukraine, which is fighting Russia, is effectively buying Russian oil via Indian diesel, which highlights the absurdity of the entire current system.
The oil trade has changed the world order
However, a fact that has received little attention so far has far more serious implications, in two respects.
The sanctions imposed by the US and the EU are more or less only effective in the Western world. The rest of the world simply does not respect them and openly circumvents them. India has shown no interest in bowing to American pressure regarding Russian oil trade. Countries such as China have taken a similar stance.
This attitude shows that the structure of global oil trade has changed. Asian buyers are now in a position to dictate terms, which would have been unthinkable before the invasion of Ukraine.
Instead of achieving their goals, the sanctions against Russia have created a new system for oil sales in which the West has lost its dominant position. The loss of this position also means the loss of the ability to dictate “proper behavior” to other countries.
The global oil trade shows that the West can no longer impose its policies on other countries as it did in the past. It no longer has the power to do so. It lost that power after cheap Russian oil penetrated areas where it did not previously exist.
This is a direct consequence of the sanctions against Russia.