According to Ukrainian and Western officials, the upgraded Russian missiles can change their trajectory in the final phase of flight, thereby deceiving American Patriot air defense systems.
Patriot is currently the only Western system capable of intercepting these advanced missiles.
Kiev has been asking its allies for these weapons all summer.
Expensive destruction of cheap drones
A typical Patriot battery consists of a radar, control units, a power module, launchers, and support vehicles. The system is capable of intercepting aircraft, ballistic missiles, and guided missiles, depending on the type of interceptor used.
The older PAC-2 version uses a fragmentation warhead that explodes near the target. Newer missiles from the PAC-3 family use precision hit-to-kill technology.
It is not known which specific versions of the Patriot missiles Ukraine has received, but it is assumed that it has at least some newer PAC-3 CRI interceptor missiles.
The system's radar has a range of more than 150 kilometers, as NATO announced back in 2015. According to Raytheon, the system has intercepted more than 150 ballistic missiles in combat conditions since January 2015.
These are very expensive devices. A Patriot system battery costs around €920 million, and a Patriot missile – a so-called interceptor – is estimated to cost around €3.7 million. It is therefore a very costly method of destroying cheap drones. Manufacturing is very complex and time-consuming, which is why deliveries from overseas are arriving late at the Ukrainian front.
Modifications to the missiles
In recent weeks, Russia has reportedly modified its Iskander-M mobile system with a range of up to 500 km and its air-launched Kinžal missiles with a range of up to 480 km.
These missiles initially follow a standard trajectory, but shortly before impact they abruptly change direction or go into a steep dive to avoid interception. According to experts, this is a turning point in missile warfare.
While Ukraine was still able to intercept 37 percent of missiles in August, its success rate fell to just six percent in September – despite a lower number of launches, writes the Financial Times portal.
According to analysts, the changes in the efficiency of Russian missiles are the result of software adjustments to the guidance systems. These adjustments enable the missiles to maneuver aggressively in the final phase of their flight, making them much more difficult to track.
Moscow also used the summer to attack Ukrainian drone manufacturers. At least four factories in Kiev and the surrounding area were severely damaged. On August 28, for example, missiles damaged a factory that manufactures Turkish Bayraktar drones and the offices of a company that develops components for drone systems. The attacks also damaged the premises of the EU delegation and the British Council.
Weaknesses of the Patriot system
The Patriot system is manufactured by Virginia-based Raytheon, while Maryland-based Lockheed Martin produces the missiles for this system.
Ukraine shares data on the use of Patriot missiles with manufacturers and the US Pentagon so that its allies can update them. However, a representative explained that these improvements often lag behind Moscow's evolving tactics.
Ukraine has received at least six Patriot batteries so far. The components for at least three more were delivered by Germany and Norway in recent weeks. This was in response to a request from President Volodymyr Zelensky, who asked his Western partners in the summer to supply up to ten complete systems.
The Patriots were originally protected on the front lines by other systems, such as the European Iris-T and medium-range batteries. Now, however, they have to protect themselves, which has resulted in some of them being damaged. This means that Ukraine's multi-layered air defense architecture has been weakened.
Zelensky warned that Russia is attempting to repeat its strategy from previous years—depriving the country of electricity ahead of the approaching winter and undermining the morale of the population through massive attacks on energy infrastructure.
(reuters, lup, ft)