The director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, expressed his conviction on Saturday that the uranium stocks enriched by the Islamic Republic of Iran are undamaged and secure.
Grossi, head of one of the oldest independent UN agencies, suggested in an interview with the Swiss daily newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung on October 18 that “the bulk” of the stockpiles had “survived the bombing” during the so-called Twelve-Day War and remained at the facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
The agency is focusing on uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. Grossi told the NZZ that Iran currently has “about 400 kilograms” of it. The Times of Israel (TOI) daily newspaper recalled a leaked internal IAEA report dated June 13, according to which Tehran had 440.9 kilograms of enriched nuclear material at that time.
In this report, however, Grossi argued that the IAEA saw no signs that the Shiite leadership was attempting to launch a military nuclear program. On the same day, Israel attacked Iran.
The Americans entered the war
The uranium enrichment plant in Fordow is located deep underground, which is why the daily newspaper TOI reported that the Israeli government had counted on the involvement of the US. During the “war,” President Donald Trump authorized an air strike with B-2 bombers. According to Grossi, all facilities were “massively” damaged, which contradicts Tehran's statements.
The IAEA has no access to the facilities or uranium stocks. Following the attacks and the publication of Israeli intelligence documents accusing Tel Aviv of influencing the agency, Iran has suspended its cooperation with Grossi's agency.
Grossi hopes that cooperation will resume, as IAEA inspectors would only be granted access to the allegedly destroyed facilities in the event of “unrestricted cooperation with Iran.” “That will only happen if Iran considers it to be in its national interest,” he said.
Iran has also withdrawn from cooperation with the IAEA in response to the reimposition of international sanctions by European countries. The E3 format, consisting of the UK, France, and Germany, activated the snapback mechanism at the end of September, immediately reinstating international restrictions.
After the US attacks, Tehran claimed that it had moved its uranium stocks and individual equipment such as centrifuges to an unspecified location. This suggested that the Shiite government knew about the planned US attack, but at the same time raised the question of what would happen to the uranium.
Grossi expressed the same uncertainty. "Will we get access to this uranium? And what will happen to it then? Will Iran want to keep it, will it reduce its enrichment again, or will it be taken abroad?“ he asked. ”There are many possibilities."
Even before the American attacks, Russia proposed to take over the enriched uranium in exchange for the resumption of the 2015 nuclear agreement, which had been concluded by President Barack Obama. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov offered that Moscow would convert the highly enriched nuclear fuel into fuel rods for reactors, such as the Bushehr power plant on the coast of the Persian Gulf.
What steps were taken during the 12-day war?
On June 23, Iran carried out a retaliatory strike against the American air base al-Udeid in Qatar. This was in response to the attack with B-2 bombers. However, it later emerged that Tehran had informed the Americans in advance of the planned attack and had only used ten ballistic missiles.
As a result, there was minimal damage and no casualties after the Iranian attack on the base. The Reuters news agency subsequently published statements from Iranian sources clarifying that Tehran had indeed informed Washington about the “symbolic” attack through non-public channels.
American intelligence agencies also gained access to a recording of a private telephone conversation between Iranian officials who assessed the attacks on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan as “less destructive than expected.” Four sources from the intelligence community informed the Washington Post daily newspaper about this recording.
This information suggests that the American-Iranian exchanges of fire may have been nothing more than “theater for the world” without any real military escalation. Paradoxically, however, the way in which the parties to the conflict informed each other in advance of planned actions is reassuring—if Washington and Tehran are only playing war games and their actions have no serious consequences, there is no danger of an actual escalation of tensions in the Middle East for the time being.
This is also related to the fact that the war between two potential “nuclear powers” – one of which keeps its alleged nuclear program secret and the other of which officially has a civilian program – was over after twelve days. The exchange of fire could easily have escalated into extensive military operations, with the risk of Russia, China, or North Korea becoming involved on the Iranian side, and the United States and probably also the United Kingdom on the Israeli side.
However, it should be remembered that Israel did not coordinate its actions with anyone. This is one of the reasons why Trump criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even though criticism of Israel by the US is more than unusual.
The White House chief has repeatedly called on the Israeli leader to “calm down” this year, even though it was ultimately the US that bombed Iran. It was also Trump who ordered the liquidation of Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Qasem Soleimani during his first term in office, so his attitude toward the Islamic Republic can be described as “hawkish.”
At the same time, Trump has presented himself throughout his life as someone who is capable of reaching agreements with anyone. With a little distance, it is now clear that he has agreed on certain military steps with the “arch-enemy” of the Republican elite.