Israel will wait for peace. Hamas and Hezbollah militias are joining

Militants of the Palestinian nationalist movement Hamas are fleeing the Gaza Strip towards Lebanon and in recent months hundreds of them have joined the elite Radwan special forces under the Shiite Hezbollah movement.

The armed wing of Hamas is called the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, but they are, by Western estimates, badly decimated after more than two years of a devastating war with Israel. Prior to the war, which began on October 7, 2023 with an attack on southern Israel, the armed detachments had a staff of 25- to 30-thousand men.

Current US intelligence estimates put the number at about 16 to 18 thousand militants, and according to former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as of September 2024, "they are no longer a combat formation" with the strength of an army.

"Hamas as a military organization no longer exists. Hamas is fighting a guerrilla war and we are still fighting Hamas terrorists and pursuing the Hamas leadership," he said last September 9.

Sunnis are empowering the Shiites

However, as a report by Israel's public broadcaster Kan News revealed, sections of the Hamas brigades are by and large coming under the command of the Lebanese militants' special forces. Radwan, on the other hand, has between 2,500 and 3,000 fighters, and Hezbollah's total strength is estimated at 40,000 militants. However, various combat formations are affiliated to the Shi'ite movement and the command structure is therefore highly decentralised.

The movement launched a series of cross-border attacks as early as 8 October 2023, just one day after Hamas and other groups attacked southern Israel. In September 2024, it was the target of a notorious pager blast, and the Israeli army later killed its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah.

Cross-border shootouts escalated into an outright Israeli invasion of Lebanese territory on October 1, 2024, with militant soldiers considerably weakened in several waves of attacks. At the same time, a ceasefire had been in place since 27 November, under which Hezbollah was to move fighters and equipment north of the Litani River, some 30 kilometres from the border with Israel.

After several violations by both sides, the ceasefire was extended until 18 February, with the Israeli army withdrawing from all occupied territory - except for five checkpoints.

"Hezbollah's decision to allow Hamas to join the existing military force stems from the organization's realization that it is no longer militarily strong enough after the war with Israel," according to Kan News.

Palestinian militants, on the other hand, are strengthening their position north of Israel as a result of having their ranks essentially decimated by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip. Hamas has a history of recruiting Palestinian refugees who were driven to Lebanon by the first Israeli-Arab war (1948), known in Arab circles as the Nakba (Catastrophe).

"As a result, this changes the elite Radwan forces from Lebanese Shiite to Palestinian," noted the Sons of Jerusalem analytical channel on the Telegram platform. The latter also cited a Kan News report that Hamas activities are concentrated in the cities of Sidon, Tyros (Sour) and Tripoli (Tarabulus).

The coming together of Sunni and Shia militias [the two main branches of Islam, ed.] is not surprising in the context of the Israeli-Arab conflict. The various groups are more than willing to put their theological differences behind them in the name of a united front against an enemy they describe by the phrase 'the Zionist occupation regime'.

The disintegration of the axis of resistance

The specific reasons for these movements of anti-Israeli gunmen are not yet known. However, both groups claim to be part of the so-called Axis of Resistance - a coalition of militant or terrorist groups whose actions are coordinated by the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Shiite Ansar Allah militant movement in western Yemen, which has controlled the capital Sanaa since 2014, has also been part of the "axis of resistance". They are better known to Slovak readers as the Houthis, an unofficial name derived from the family name of the organisation's founders - it is still headed by its leader, Abdulmalik al-Houthi.

Since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, militants have begun attacking cargo ships sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. In March this year, the US therefore carried out a large-scale air strike - which officials communicated about via Signal.

Recently, however, an anonymous Iranian official admitted to the Telegraph that the Houthis have de facto disengaged from the "axis of resistance" and have stopped taking orders from Tehran. "The Houthis have been breaking away for some time and are now the real rebels," the source told the British newspaper.

"They don't obey Tehran the way they used to," he continued, adding that it is not just the Houthis. "It's not just the Houthis - some groups in Iraq are also behaving as if we never had any contact with them," he added, referring to the Shi'ite militias under the umbrella of the Kata'ib Hezbollah organisation.

As the Telegraph noted, after four decades of building an "axis of resistance", Tehran has essentially lost it, precisely in the context of the war against Israel. It is thanks to this militant coalition in particular that the Islamic Republic has been able to act as a regional power, especially vis-à-vis Israel or Saudi Arabia.

However, the weakening of the coordination of the militant groups, the recent water crisis and the growing tensions between the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guards are causing Iran to move away again from the imaginary pedestal of regional power or hegemon. The Shi'ite regime is therefore apparently being forced to take unusual steps, such as bringing together movements that would otherwise stand in opposition.