WSJ: The Ukrainians had the upper hand in the drone war. The Russians are already gaining the upper hand

At the same time, the stepped-up drone superiority is weakening Kiev's diplomatic position, while pressure is growing in the US to end the conflict on terms favourable to Moscow, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports.

Ukraine and European allies are trying to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump to push Russia toward a more balanced deal. On the battlefield, however, Ukraine is losing the technological edge it has held for nearly four years. In the fall, Russian forces gained the upper hand in tactical drone deployments for the first time, outnumbering Ukrainian machines on key sections of the front and complicating supply lines for defenders.

Valery Zaluzhnyi, former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army and current ambassador to the UK, warns that "the safe zone of silence is ceasing to exist". Although Russian forces cannot break the front, the Ukrainian military risks exhaustion if it does not gain the initiative in the technological sphere, the Journal noted.

Russia has significantly stepped up its use of small drones for reconnaissance, guided artillery and attacks. It has copied Ukraine's FPV drone tactics [first-person-guided drones, ed. note] and has fundamentally changed its approach following Ukraine's breakthrough into the Kursk region in 2024.

The new Rubikon unit, composed of elite Russian operators, targeted Ukrainian logistics with jam-resistant fiber drones. Their interference caused the collapse of Ukrainian supply routes and a chaotic retreat from the Kursk region, which Kiev's forces invaded on August 6 last year.

Rubikon has subsequently expanded its operations to the eastern front and is training additional Russian troops. According to Ukrainian commanders, the unit is mainly attacking logistics hubs 20 kilometres behind the front and targeting Ukrainian drone operators.

(wsj, sab)