After the initial shock on April 2, the markets quickly recovered and rose to new historic highs. Paradoxically, however, it is precisely this record level of US stocks that makes it difficult to identify the real winners and losers.
In an environment where passive investing through ETFs tracking the S&P 500 index has become the most widespread investment strategy, it turned out that almost everyone who remained in the market was a "winner."
Therefore, choosing classic criteria such as annual stock performance or losses is not the best guide. Personally, I consider it more accurate to look at whether individual players have been able to turn structural changes in economic policy into a lasting competitive advantage.
Palantir: a winner thanks to betting on the future
And from this perspective of competitive advantage, there is no better company than Palantir. Its shares have risen by an impressive 140 percent since the beginning of this year. That may not be enough to win the Nasdaq 100 index, with Warner Bros., which Netflix and Paramount want to merge with, performing slightly better.
However, Palantir's magic lies elsewhere. Its market capitalization is approximately $436 billion, which ranks it 22nd in this ranking. The classic P/E ratio for this stock is $428 billion. In layman's terms, Palantir's shares are valued at more than four times its annual profit.
Even Tesla does not have such a high valuation, and it is only possible if investors completely disregard today's reality and bet almost exclusively on the future. Palantir is the well-deserved winner of 2025 because its price shows that investors are paying for the future. I don't know what 2026 will bring, but in this new world that is coming, the aforementioned company will play an important role. Financial markets like to look to the future, and Palantir's eye offers them that future.
Oracle: a loss due to doubts about AI investments
Oracle was among the losers of 2025. It is not so much its stock curve that ranks it among the losers. The company's shares have even remained in positive territory since the beginning of 2025, adding 11 percent. The problem lies elsewhere than in the development of the share price.
During 2025, there was increasing talk about the return on investment in artificial intelligence. This issue is always important when an investment bubble bursts. It has long been pointed out that the giant investors in artificial intelligence from the big five technology companies (GAFAM) have no cash problems.
These are all companies that generate sufficient cash flow. So they may dissolve a large part of their profits in gigantic artificial intelligence projects, but these investments do not threaten them. There is no danger of a repeat of the internet bubble.
However, this story has been disrupted by Oracle's shares. The company's AI investment plans, which are primarily linked to OpenAI, are frightening its creditors. Concerns about whether the company will be able to meet its obligations are reflected in the so-called five-year credit default swaps, i.e., insurance paid on Oracle's debt.
The price of insurance jumped when it became apparent that capital expenditures on AI infrastructure for 2025 had risen from $35 billion to $50 billion. This might not be a problem for a financially healthy company.
However, Oracle is a company with high debt and eroding free cash flow, which is already in negative territory. Add to that the fact that the latest version of the ChatGPT language model is generating more confusion than enthusiasm, and the company could very quickly find itself in trouble.
That is why Oracle's stock is a loser this year, because it has reminded us that the future for artificial intelligence may not always be rosy. The events surrounding Oracle may therefore end the boom in AI investment without investors asking about the company's fundamentals. Investors will thus become much more interested in individual companies and their financial performance.
The year 2025 did not show a simple battle between winners and losers on the markets, but rather reminded us that rising indices do not necessarily mean that everything is fine. Financial markets look ahead, which is why they can be generous to those who offer a convincing future and ruthless to those who begin to seriously doubt it.
