The end of American exceptionalism? China is getting richer, the US is getting poorer

In his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard, Zbigniew Brzezinski states that American global dominance is unique, as for the first time in history, a power outside Eurasia has become the main arbiter of world forces.

According to him, this uniqueness was the result of a combination of history, geography, and power, not a permanent state of affairs. The gray eminence of American foreign policy was also aware that this was a temporary situation. America had its destiny in its own hands, but the inevitable end of its supremacy would come, either through its departure from the world stage or the sudden rise of a successful rival.

In a sense, Donald Trump fulfills both of these scenarios at the same time. His MAGA program is not an attempt to maintain global hegemony at all costs, but an effort to withdraw America from it before it becomes a burden.

In this conception, retreating from the role of global hegemon does not mean weakness, but a redefinition of the approach to power. From another perspective, however, Trump is failing to stop or significantly weaken his rival China. This opens up a unique opportunity for China to try to defeat the United States as it retreats from the world stage. Does China have what it takes to dethrone the US from its global throne?

Trade surplus as a weapon

China's greatest strength lies precisely where the US is currently at its weakest – in international trade. In 2025, China's foreign trade surplus reached a record high of approximately $1.2 trillion. China achieved this record despite the introduction of tariffs by the White House.

The Asian country's exports grew at a rate of around six percent, reaching a value of close to $3.8 trillion. We do not yet have exact figures for the entire year 2025 from the US, but the foreign trade balance will again end up with a significant deficit in the hundreds of billions of dollars. This situation has been going on for decades. In layman's terms, China is getting richer every year and the US is getting poorer.

If nothing fundamental changes in this setup, everyone knows how it will end. Wealth will shift from the United States to China, and nothing will change. The decline in wealth will eventually manifest itself at the military level.

Trump wants to increase the military budget, but the state treasury is empty. China, on the other hand, can direct its surpluses to the military. Given the Russian-Chinese cooperation and, in particular, China's ability to quickly copy technology, Beijing is saving a lot on the development of military equipment. If we remain at this level, the Asian superpower will slowly but surely close the American lead every year.

Technological and demographic race

Another factor in which China is rapidly overtaking America is the number of patents. In recent years, it has filed significantly more patent applications than the US. Technology is one of the decisive factors in global dominance.

After experiencing the influence of social media in the US, Chinese President Xi Jinping chose a different path. This shift was well illustrated by the episode involving the re-education of billionaire Jack Ma and the weakening of Alibaba as a symbol of Chinese digital success.

The president focused more on traditional industry so that China could maintain its position as the world's factory. It seemed that America would take advantage of this change to leap ahead in the field of artificial intelligence, where it was gaining a lead over the rest of the world. However, the arrival of the DeepSeek language model was a bolt from the blue for American plans. America's lead in artificial intelligence has narrowed.

The ban on the export of Nvidia H20 chips, manufactured specifically for the Chinese market and slightly less powerful than the elite models, has proven counterproductive. The head of Nvidia even asked Trump to lift the ban, not because of lost profits, but because China would be even more motivated to catch up with America. In terms of human potential, it is only a matter of time before the tenfold increase in the production of engineering-educated people in China becomes apparent.

Demographic brake as a key limitation

At first glance, all of the above arguments paint a picture of the United States with the clock ticking rapidly until China reaches the point where it will overtake the US. In reality, the situation is more complex, as demographics will catch up with the country of the dragon sooner or later.

The current figures are not yet dramatic. The proportion of China's population over the age of 65 was around 14.7 percent in 2024, which is less than in the US, where it was approximately 18 percent. Demographic forecasts are very reliable in the medium term. China's one-child policy is taking a heavy toll as the country faces a huge increase in the number of seniors.

Estimates suggest that the population of people over 60 could reach around 400 million by 2035. The rapid increase in the number of retirees will have two major impacts on China. The first is a large decline in the workforce. After all, China's current success is based on available and skilled labor.

The second, perhaps even more important, is a decline in consumption. Economic consumption naturally declines with age, and it is the growth of domestic consumption that is expected to be the engine of growth in the coming years. Even if China manages to boost consumption, it will run out of steam in ten years.

The demographic problem is not just about aging. From the perspective of potential dominance, the even more serious issue is low birth rates. In China, it is around 1 to 1.1 children per woman. In the US, the birth rate is significantly higher, around 1.6 to 1.8 children per woman.

The problem is that in China's case, the classic doctrine of the end of prosperity as in the West does not apply. On the contrary, the younger generations are materially better off than the older ones. Even though Chinese society is not subject to the same type of decadence as Western society, it is unable to solve the most important issue in order to become a true superpower.

Its model of society is not attractive even to the Chinese themselves. Asian society is very authoritarian, the rules of career advancement are rigid, and the party apparatus remains all-powerful.

Brzezinski was right in saying that American global dominance was a historical exception, not a permanent state of affairs. The question today is not whether it will end, but whether it can be replaced by someone who, in addition to power, can offer the world an attractive narrative similar to the American dream, which China currently lacks.