In 2025, the European Union consumed approximately 320 billion cubic meters of gas. Of this, less than a quarter was imported in liquefied form from the US.
Russian gas accounted for around 13 percent last year, while in 2021 – before the war in Ukraine – roughly 150 billion cubic meters flowed into the EU through a robust gas pipeline infrastructure, more than three times as much.
The old continent has thus successfully rid itself of its dependence on Russian gas, but hostility towards Russia means that it wants to get rid of it completely. In January, member states voted by a qualified majority to definitively end all imports of Russian LNG from 2027 and the last pipeline gas in the fall.
It should be added that Slovakia and Hungary voted against the regulation and are going to sue Brussels over it.
For many countries in Eastern Europe, Russian gas is the most advantageous option. Not so much for the commodity itself, but for the existing pipelines capable of transporting huge volumes cheaply. In addition, the region was at the beginning of the transit routes, so it could benefit from transporting gas to Western Europe.
With other suppliers, the opposite is true. This hurts landlocked countries in particular, such as Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, and the Czech Republic.
Moreover, Russian gas has mainly replaced American gas, which is imported in liquefied form. This form of transport involves costs for liquefaction, transport, and subsequent regasification of the supply. According to industry experts, it is therefore unrealistic to expect prices to fall below €20 per megawatt hour (and especially to remain at this level), as was common before the war in Ukraine.
A bigger problem than Russia is emerging
However, the dire consequences of a complete halt to Russian gas imports for the Eastern European region are only one side of the coin. The other is the fact that Brussels has quickly jumped from dependence on one superpower to another.
The United States now supplies Europe with almost twice as much gas as Russia. And the trend will continue to grow, as there is no one to replace the missing 40 billion Russian cubic meters. The United States has the largest spare capacity (with the exception of Russia), and Qatar will also play a role in the near future.
However, the President of the European Commission assured President Donald Trump in the summer that the continent would purchase $250 billion worth of American commodities every year. While this is not feasible, gas imports from the US are simply growing steadily.
The core of the problem lies in the unpredictability of the current US president. Although he ultimately backed down on Greenland and is satisfied with a favorable agreement, his rhetoric is destroying the last remnants of trust between Europe and the US.
European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen likened the recent events at the end of January to a "wake-up call" for Europe. He said that in this context, concerns about dependence on the United States are growing across countries, which is why they are actively looking for alternatives.
When gas from Russia is not flowing, both sides suffer. When gas from the US is not flowing, Europe suffers most.
The analytical and business portal bne IntelliNews even wrote that energy dependence on the United States is potentially even more harmful than dependence on cheap Russian gas.
This is mainly because the White House can misuse gas as a political weapon, while it is hardly affected by it.
The halt to Russian gas hurts not only Europe, but also the Kremlin, which must now complicatingly redirect the commodity supplied by pipeline to long-term customers to new buyers. However, the LNG market is flexible, and the United States can relatively easily redirect its supplies to Europe. For example, to willing countries in Asia, where demand is traditionally strong. Due to their high flexibility, American supplies are "much less reliable" according to the portal.
However, Richard Kvasňovský, executive director of the Slovak Gas and Oil Association, points out to Štandard that China is also investing heavily in domestic production and its demand for LNG is falling, which is a "positive development" for Europe.
The Berlin-based analytical website further writes that Gazprom's commercial division has long kept its promise to remain a reliable energy partner that will not allow politics to interfere with trade. Trump has not mentioned anything similar. By forcing Europe to buy American raw materials, he is doing the opposite.
The first year of his administration is full of examples of him using almost anything as a bargaining chip – from tariffs to statements about withdrawing from NATO to threatening to annex Greenland by military force. In short, there is a historical precedent that clearly shows that American gas could easily become his new club over time. This is also suggested by analysts from Norway, for example.
There are few alternatives
According to the European energy chief, Brussels is now actively looking for ways out of this unpleasant situation.
A return to Russian gas is politically unfeasible for the time being, so the focus is mainly on gas from Canada or Qatar. However, if Russian supplies were to be reduced to zero and American supplies by at least ten percentage points, the amount of gas that would need to be replaced would be around 70 to 80 billion cubic meters per year. This is essentially unfeasible.
Qatar plans to significantly increase LNG production and exports over the next two to three years, but it is difficult to expect that all of it will go to the European Union. In that case, the EU would once again become dependent on a single country.
Qatar exports gas from the Persian Gulf, so a unilateral dependence on this commodity from this country would be a huge risk. Especially at a time when Iran is threatened by civil war, is at loggerheads with Israel and the US, and one of its greatest levers is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.