Norway cannot rule out the scenario of a preemptive Russian attack to protect Moscow's nuclear weapons from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), said Norwegian Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen.
A large part of Russia's nuclear arsenal, including nuclear submarines, missiles, and aircraft capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is located on the Kola Peninsula in northern European Russia. Protecting them is part of the Kremlin's strategic doctrine, and part of this protection could include a preemptive strike against Scandinavian countries, according to the commander-in-chief of the Norwegian Armed Forces.
"We do not rule out that Russia will seize territory as part of its plan to protect its own nuclear capabilities, which are the only thing they have left and what really threatens the United States," the general told the British daily The Guardian.
Kristoffersen noted that a potential Russian attack would not be the same as Moscow's military actions against the former Soviet republics and therefore it would not be possible to legitimize the war by "restoring the empire." However, nuclear weapons would be crucial in the event of a conflict between Russia and NATO.
"We are not ruling it out because Russia still has the option to do so to ensure the protection of its nuclear capabilities and second-strike capabilities. That is the scenario we are preparing for in the far north," he noted.
Norway is not trying to militarize Svalbard
Despite the potential threat from Russia—which has increased since Norway's neighbors Finland and Sweden joined NATO in 2023 and 2024—Norway continues to cooperate with Russia in the Svalbard archipelago. And although Oslo is preparing for a traditional invasion and the growth of hybrid threats, it maintains direct contact with Moscow in connection with rescue and search operations in the Arctic.
Kristoffersen has been head of the Royal Armed Forces General Staff since 2020. At the beginning of his tenure, he recommended establishing a permanent hotline with Russian officials. The aim was to establish a communication channel through which countries could avoid potential escalation based on misunderstandings.
"So far, we have seen airspace violations in our region that were the result of misunderstandings. Russia is doing a lot of [GPS] jamming, and we think that jamming is also affecting their aircraft," he said, adding that the situation in the Baltic Sea is much more risky than in the north.
"They don't say so, but we see that when airspace violations occur, it is usually due to a lack of pilot experience. When we talk to the Russians, they respond very professionally and predictably," he assured.
Moscow respects the 1920 Spitsbergen Treaty, Kristoffersen noted. However, he rejects claims of militarization of the archipelago.
Russia recently accused the Norwegian government of "secret" militarization of Svalbard, which would be in violation of the aforementioned treaty. However, the general stated that this is only a propaganda claim, "which even Moscow does not believe."
Trump's Greenland
Kristoffersen also paused to consider US President Donald Trump's claims that Russia and China want to expand in Greenland, which would pose a threat to US national security, describing them as "very strange."
"Our intelligence services provide us with a very good overview of what is happening in the Arctic, and we are not observing anything like that in Greenland," the general said. "We see Russian activity with their submarines and their undersea program in their traditional part of the Arctic... But it's not about Greenland, it's about reaching the Atlantic," he explained.
According to French President Emmanuel Macron, Europe is in a "Greenland moment" that threatens trust in the US. He called on his European allies not to give in to Trump or try to reach an agreement with him.
"We have been trying this strategy for months and it is not working. But above all, strategically, it is leading Europe to increase its dependence," warned the head of the Élysée Palace, adding that "fear for Greenland" is still present.
"There are threats and intimidation, and then Washington suddenly withdraws. And we think it's over. But don't believe it for a second," he said.
The Guardian asked Kristoffersen how realistic an American invasion of Greenland is and whether Denmark and its European allies would have "any chance" of repelling such an attack. "They won't do it, so it's a hypothetical question," the Norwegian general assured.
"If Russia has learned anything from the war in Ukraine, it is, in my opinion, that occupying a country is never a good idea. If the people don't want it, it will cost you a lot of money and effort, and in the end, you will actually lose," he reminded Trump of the lesson from the European war.
