Geneva. European intelligence officials, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, say Russia has little interest in bringing the war to a swift end. Four of them added that Moscow is using the talks with Washington primarily to press for the easing of sanctions and to negotiate trade agreements.
"It's a negotiating theater," said one of the intelligence chiefs, referring to the talks, the latest round of which took place this week in Geneva. Ukraine, meanwhile, claims that the White House is seeking to secure peace by June, ahead of the November congressional elections in the US.
Moscow's goals
One European official said Moscow’s strategic objectives remain unchanged. They include removing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and turning Ukraine into a “neutral” state that would serve as a buffer against the West.
Another intelligence chief said Russia neither wants nor needs a rapid peace, as its economy is “not on the brink of collapse”. European agencies regard Russia as one of their top intelligence priorities.
The third round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators this week failed to produce a breakthrough. One of the main sticking points remains the Donetsk region. Moscow is demanding that Ukraine withdraw its forces from the remaining roughly 20 per cent of the territory it does not control, a step Kyiv refuses to take.
One of the intelligence officials warned against the assumption that concessions in Donetsk would automatically lead to peace. According to him, this would at best mark the beginning of further negotiations, after which Russia could present new demands.
Two tracks of negotiation
Two of the officials interviewed said Moscow is attempting to split the negotiations into two tracks — one focused on the war, the other on bilateral agreements with the US, including sanctions relief.
Zelenskyy said that, according to his intelligence services, the sides also discussed potential cooperation worth up to $12 trillion, allegedly proposed by the Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
The White House rejected the anonymous criticism. Spokeswoman Anna Kelly said President Trump and his team had done more than anyone else to bring the two sides to the negotiating table and stop the killing.
According to one European intelligence chief, Russia faces “very high” financial risks in the second half of 2026, mainly because of limited access to capital markets and elevated interest rates.
The central bank is keeping its key rate at 15.5 per cent, while the liquid portion of the reserve fund has fallen by more than half since 2022.
(max, lud)