Tehran retains leverage, Hormuz a pressure point

After nearly six weeks of fighting between the US, Israel and Iran, a fragile ceasefire has been agreed, which President Donald Trump is hailing as a victory. But analysts say the conflict has revealed a new reality.

While Iran has suffered significant damage, it has retained key instruments of power and strengthened its influence in the region.

The most significant factor is its control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil flows. Tehran is even considering the introduction of safe-passage fees, causing concern in global markets.

At the same time, unresolved issues remain, including the nuclear programme, missiles and support for regional militias. Although Washington claims that Iran’s missile programme has been weakened, the country retains the capability for further escalation. The ceasefire is therefore seen only as a temporary pause.

Future negotiations will show whether a broader agreement can be reached or whether the region is heading towards an even more dangerous conflict.

(reuters, pir)