EU Population Projected to Drop by 40% by 2100

The population of the European Union could drop by 40% between 2025 and 2100 if present levels of migration were to cease, a new study from Eurostat predicts. 

This translates to an estimated decline of 184 million people, falling from a projected high of 452 million in 2026 down to 268 million in 2100, according to the figures released on 8 May.

If migration figures are included, the EU still faces a population decline of 11.7%, Eurostat predicts, dropping to 399 million people.

The results are based on assumptions of “partial convergence” of EU countries’ fertility, mortality and migration patterns, a spokesperson from the European statistical agency said.

With or without migration, the EU faces an aging population and a shrinking workforce, the study shows.

If migration were to cease, the share of children and young people (19 and under) as a percentage of the whole population would drop from 20% to 11% the projection suggests, while the share of working-age people (aged 20–64) is expected to fall to from 58% to 48%.

Even with migration included, the share of children and young people is projected to decline from 20% to 17%, while the share of working-age people is expected to fall from 58% to 50% by 2100.

Eurostat warns that, given the intrinsic uncertainty of future population dynamics, its predictions should be interpreted as only one of a range of possible demographic developments and not as forecasts.