OPEC and Oil Majors Hold Back Despite Surging Prices

The oil market has been hit by significant instability following the war with Iran, reshaping the approach of major energy companies and OPEC members alike. Although prices have risen sharply above $100 a barrel following supply disruptions, neither the majors nor producers are yet planning significant increases in investment or production.

The conflict in the Middle East and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the end of February have caused widespread oil and gas shortages. The region has lost more than 13% of its global oil supply and around a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows.

Energy giants including BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Shell and TotalEnergies are maintaining a cautious stance. None has yet revised its investment plans for 2026 or beyond.

According to analysts, after years of aggressive expansion, the sector is focusing primarily on financial discipline and stable returns for shareholders. Companies are also concerned about sharp price fluctuations, which have intensified since the outbreak of the war.

OPEC members and the broader OPEC+ grouping had originally planned to increase production from April. According to Reuters, it is high volatility rather than scarcity of supply that is emerging as the main risk to the market

(reuters, bak)