UNHCR: Most Ukrainian Refugees May Stay in Europe Until 2029

More than half of Ukrainian refugees could remain in Europe until at least 2029 even if Russia’s war ends this year in a “fragile peace with concessions”, according to an analysis by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), cited by European Pravda.

The scenario assumes that Russia retains de facto control over the occupied territories, that investment in government-controlled areas of Ukraine remains at a medium or high level, and that the European Union ends temporary protection for Ukrainians in March 2027.

In that case, 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees would remain in Europe, or 56% of their current number, according to the analysis.

If the war continues without a fundamental change in the situation, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe would remain almost unchanged, UNHCR said. Under that scenario, 5.16 million refugees, or 99% of the current number, could still be in Europe by the end of 2029.

A third scenario, based on a Ukrainian victory and the return of occupied territories by the end of this year, envisages a more significant return of refugees, with 32% remaining in Europe.

UNHCR stressed that the figures were not precise forecasts, but projections of possible developments under different scenarios for the war and reconstruction.

The European Commission is meanwhile discussing the future of temporary protection for Ukrainians with member states after March 2027. The options include a further extension of the system, but also a complete end to the arrangements that have allowed millions of Ukrainians to live and work legally in EU countries since 2022.

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