The Tiger Is Coming for Colombia

Colombia is approaching a political turning point. In the first round of the presidential election, the right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella unexpectedly topped the field. With all votes counted, the 47-year-old lawyer won 43.74%. His left-wing opponent Iván Cepeda, a senator and candidate from the camp of outgoing President Gustavo Petro, received 40.90%.

As neither candidate secured an outright majority, the race will go to a runoff on 21 June. For Colombia, that means more than an ordinary second round. Voters are choosing between two political camps that could hardly be further apart: the continuation of Petro’s left-wing project on one side and a radical break with the current approach to security, drugs and economic policy on the other.

De la Espriella’s success is all the more remarkable because his campaign gained real momentum only late in the race. Conservative Senator Paloma Valencia, long seen as the natural candidate of the right and backed by parts of the political establishment, finished far behind with less than 7%. Most of her voters are now likely to move to de la Espriella, giving the outsider a strong position going into the runoff.

President Petro questioned the preliminary results on election night and said he would accept them only after the official count. Figures from the left also pointed to possible irregularities. International observers, by contrast, described the vote as orderly and transparent. That alone shows how charged the mood in Colombia has become.

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The Tiger Against the Cartels

Abelardo de la Espriella is not a conventional politician. He has never held government office, does not come from the traditional party machine and has built his campaign precisely on that distance. The criminal lawyer from northern Colombia presents himself as a man against the system, a law-and-order candidate and an answer to the left.

His nickname is “El Tigre”. At campaign rallies, he appears with tiger imagery, martial language and a promise to take Colombia back from criminals, armed groups and drug cartels. Some of his speeches are delivered from a bulletproof cabin. His message is simple: the state should inspire fear again, not the cartels.

Security lies at the center of his campaign. Colombia is suffering from rising violence, extortion, armed groups and the power of the cocaine trade. Petro’s attempt to negotiate simultaneously with several criminal and armed groups under his policy of “total peace” is seen by many voters as a failure.

That is precisely where de la Espriella enters the picture. He promises military pressure, new prisons and harsh penalties. His ideological line is equally clear. De la Espriella admires Donald Trump, speaks the language of anti-communism and warns that under Cepeda, Colombia could follow the path of Venezuela.

His opponent, by contrast, stands for the continuation of Petro’s left-wing project: social redistribution, minority protections, talks with armed groups and a stronger role for the state.

A tiger-painted supporter in Barranquilla reacts to Abelardo De La Espriella’s first-round result in Colombia’s presidential election. Photo: Charlie Cordero/Reuters

Another South American Turn to the Right

If de la Espriella wins the runoff, Colombia would become the next major signal of a rightward shift in South America. The comparison with Chile is particularly important. There, José Antonio Kast won the presidential election in December 2025 and took office in March 2026. Kast ran on a hard line against crime, illegal migration and left-wing experiments. He clearly defeated the communist Jeannette Jara in the runoff and led the country to its most right-wing government since the end of the military dictatorship.

Chile was long seen as a symbol of the region’s left-wing revival. Gabriel Boric was treated by international media as the young hope of a new progressive generation. Yet rising crime, migration pressure, economic insecurity and disappointment with left-wing government projects have pushed the political pendulum back. Kast won not despite his toughness, but because of it.

A similar pattern may now be emerging in Colombia. Petro, too, was once celebrated as a historic break: the country’s first left-wing president, a former guerrilla and a representative of groups that had long felt excluded from the old order of power. Yet his term has been marked by security problems, tensions with the US, political conflict, scandals and growing disappointment. De la Espriella is drawing strength from that fatigue with the left.

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For Donald Trump, a de la Espriella victory would be a strategic gain. Colombia is not just another Latin American country for Washington. It is central to the fight against the cocaine trade, cartels and Venezuela’s sphere of influence. A president who promises a tougher drugs policy, seeks closer alignment with the US and openly shares Trump’s security rhetoric would significantly strengthen the American position in the region. Such a change of power would also matter for the West as a whole.

Latin America is not merely deciding which parties govern. The region is also deciding questions of migration, drug trafficking, raw materials, Chinese influence, Russian contacts, Venezuelan networks and whether democratic states are prepared to treat internal security once again as one of the core duties of government.