French Presidential Race Exposes Crisis of the Mainstream

Up to a few weeks ago, it seemed unthinkable that candidates from the far left and the far right would be battling it out for France’s most powerful political post, president of the republic. But now, two polls show the National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigration party, and the far-left France Unbowed (LFI), led by veteran firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, could be in direct competition in the 2027 presidential election.

For the RN, the election is a chance to avenge its 2017 defeat at the hands of the centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron. However, while the president has kept a grip on power ever since, he has become increasingly unpopular, falling in the polls and – after a snap election Macron himself called in 2024 – cycling through prime ministers as the centrist Ensemble coalition struggled to form a government.

Now, Jordan Bardella is once again the favorite among possible RN contenders in the 2027 race, leaving mainstream centrist parties on the right and left scrambling for a possible challenger to Le Pen’s heir apparent.

Political polls appeared to offer them a glimmer of hope, with one of Macron’s former prime ministers, Édouard Philippe, consistently emerging as a likely challenger.

Enter Mélenchon

However, the latest polling from 26 May raises a new possibility, that the 74-year-old grandee of the far left, Mélenchon, could edge out the centrist candidates in the first round, setting up a second-round showdown between him and Bardella – or Le Pen herself if the Paris Court of Appeal overturns her conviction.

The French president is elected by a direct vote in a two-round system. To run for election, presidential hopefuls must secure sufficient political backing to launch their candidacy. The first-round vote narrows the field to two candidates, with the second round pitting the two in a direct competition for the presidency.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon has gone from outsider to key contender in France’s presidential race, new polls suggest. Photo: Tom Nicholson/Getty Images

If Mélenchon were to make it through the first round, it would mark a remarkable comeback for the controversial figure, known for his combative personality, alleged antisemitism and defense of violent left-wing organizations.

However, while indicating the LFI leader is ahead of the centrists in the first round, the latest predictions are not exactly favorable to Mélenchon, suggesting that if it comes down to a direct battle between himself and Bardella/Le Pen, the right will score a landslide victory.

Nightmare for French Centrists

This new election landscape has thrown the already divided French center into a state bordering on fear, with center-right candidate Philippe saying he and many French people see a choice between LFI and the RN as “a nightmare”. Meanwhile, Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin warned that you have to “be wearing blinkers” not to see the threat of Mélenchon's candidacy to the centrist cause.

Their comments come in response to two polls released in the last week of May. The first, conducted by Odoxa, showed Mélenchon neck-and-neck with former PM Philippe for second place behind Bardella. The second, from Toluna-Harris Interactive, showed Mélenchon reaching the runoff if the centrist vote is split among too many candidates, including Philippe and Macron’s own heir apparent, former PM Gabriel Attal.

Odoxa’s May poll on France’s presidential election, with figures from its March poll on the right for comparison. Source: Odoxa poll published 26 May

At present, the center-right and center-left parties have failed to present a united front in considering candidates for the 2027 election. On the right, the main contender, Philippe, has seen his campaign struggle to get off the ground. This is due to investigations he is facing for alleged fraud and an intense rivalry with other right-wing candidates like Attal and Les Républicains party leader Bruno Retailleau that is sucking up his time and energy. Philippe has suffered a sharp drop in his approval ratings, according to the Odoxa poll, meaning his long-expected duel with Bardella may turn out to be a non-event.

A Left in Turmoil

Meanwhile, the center-left is facing even greater turmoil – just last month, the Socialist Party came close to imploding when a third of its leadership left due to clashes between party leadership and key allies. Meanwhile, the left’s presidential hopeful MEP Raphaël Glucksmann has failed to inspire confidence.

This leaves the path clear for Mélenchon, who had until recently been polling as one of the most disliked French politicians. The former teacher indicated back in March that he intended to push his case as a presidential contender, launching a combative and ultimately successful campaign in municipal elections.

He stoked controversy at the time with his praise of the far-left organization Jeune Garde, even after some of their members were accused of being involved in the death of far-right activist Quentin Deranque. Mélenchon has close ties to the organization, and an aide to his LFI party was arrested as part of the investigation into Deranque’s death.

Yet Mélenchon’s 2022 result is a reminder of how narrow the path to the runoff can be. He won 22% of the vote in the first round that year. Given today’s split field, polls suggest that could be enough to see off center-right candidates in the first round.

Mélenchon has previously predicted an “us against them” battle with the far right, as the center increasingly loses support and the latest polls suggest he may have been prophetic.

When Macron surged to victory in 2017, having initially been an outsider for the Élysée Palace, the center-right in particular was ascendant. This appeared to be cemented by Macron’s re-election in 2022.

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Macronism Falters

But now, Macronism is losing ground fast and the struggles of centrist candidates indicate a fragility at the heart of the movement after almost 10 years in power. As the results of the 2024 snap parliamentary election showed, the center lost ground, while Mélenchon’s and Le Pen’s parties increased their number of representatives in parliament.

This is a scenario being played out across a number of major European countries, which are also seeing rising disaffection with mainstream political parties.

In the United Kingdom, the right-wing Reform UK has surged in popularity, while the left-wing Green Party has also seen a rise in support. The two parties’ recent success in local elections raises the possibility that the country could see a party other than the Conservatives or Labour come to power for the first time in over 100 years.

Meanwhile, in Germany the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is quickly gaining ground on centrist parties like the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), whose party leader and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is increasingly unpopular.

But whereas these nations have nominally maintained some form of centrist opposition against parties labeled far right, even if it involves teaming up with the far left, France appears to be heading for a direct confrontation between what were traditionally considered the fringes, but now appear to be the new mainstream.

If that were to occur, France would once again be leading the charge in new political experiments, just as it did in the 18th and 19th centuries when it shifted between political extremes exemplified by the French Revolution’s egalitarianism and Napoleonic imperialism.

Even if the polling proves inaccurate – the election is still a year away – it has raised the stakes of France’s presidential race quite significantly.