As Spain faces the prospect of twice as many illegal immigrants as expected applying for its legalization drive, the country's experience illustrates how far authorities are from grasping the true scale of illegal immigration. While the European Union is moving to tackle the issue through its new Migration Pact, governments are likely to find themselves confronting a problem whose severity is chronically underestimated, the result of decades of liberal border policies and strict deportation rules.
The latest figures show that over 900,000 people are already requesting legalization, with experts warning that the total will exceed one million before the scheme concludes at the end of June. Spanish police believe the figure will be close to 1.2 million. When Spain announced its mass drive to regularize the status of illegal immigrants living in the country, the government predicted some 500,000 would come forward.
The legalization drive was launched by the ruling left-wing government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, whose officials argue that the process is necessary to strengthen the labor market and secure greater welfare contributions in an aging society. The measure was aimed at integrating undocumented migrants already living in the country into the formal labor market.
The number of those who have applied for regularization covers only those already living in Spain and does not account for the likelihood of newly legalized residents seeking to bring their families to join them.
Given that Spain has recently relaxed its laws around family reunification, this raises the prospect of the legalization drive producing further growth in Spain's already large migrant population. Figures from Eurostat show that family reasons accounted for almost a quarter of first residence permits issued across the EU in 2023 and half of those granted in Spain.
Pull Factor for Illegal Immigrants
While the ruling left-wing party continues to defend the policy, opposition politicians on the Spanish right warn the move will create a pull factor for illegal migrants.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the center-right People's Party, argued the move was “inhumane because it encourages the organized crime” of people-trafficking mafias, and was “unfair, unsafe and unsustainable”.
Opposition figures and pro-migrant charities have also highlighted the likelihood that migrants’ “vulnerable situations” will place additional pressure on social services, a concern that contradicts government claims about the net economic benefit of immigration.
The United Nations estimates that there were almost nine million international migrants in Spain in 2024, out of a population of 49 million. The largest foreign-born groups originated from Morocco (1,088,408), Colombia (792,228) and Venezuela (602,539).
However, as the latest regularization drive demonstrates, even this figure significantly underestimates the scale of immigration, given the presence of large numbers of illegal immigrants who go uncounted.
The Numbers Do Not Add Up
This is not a problem confined to Spain. In Ireland, after the government established a regularization scheme that ultimately received around 5,000 applications, ministers admitted they had held no data on the number of illegal immigrants living in the country before the scheme was launched. Some estimates put the figure at between 15,000 and 20,000, though the Irish government argues that the clandestine nature of undocumented migration makes it difficult to quantify.
Similarly, in the UK, estimates put the size of the illegal immigrant population at somewhere between 750,000 and 1.2 million. It is likely that this number is significantly higher, given the difficulties UK authorities have faced in tracking migrants. A 2015 scheme intended to monitor migrants who entered on temporary visas lost track of over 600,000 people in just three years, while more recently the government lost track of 150,000 migrants who had arrived on skilled worker visas.
Tougher Policies Need Better Data
The high levels of illegal immigration in European nations present a serious challenge to governments at a time when the bloc is pursuing a tougher line on migration. Spain's regularization drive sits at odds with the broader EU picture, and officials within the bloc have expressed frustration with the country's approach.
Nevertheless, given the difficulty of accurately assessing the numbers of illegal immigrants present in European countries, the scheme has had the advantage of casting some light on the true extent of the problem.
Before the tougher policies envisioned under the recently signed Migration Pact can be enforced effectively, governments must be candid about the scale of the problem and prepare accordingly. At present, with the exception of countries such as Hungary, Sweden and Italy, most European leaders continue to fall short of grasping the severity of the immigration crisis and the urgency with which it needs to be addressed.
