How much additional revenue the reform ultimately generates will depend on how consumers shop and how online marketplaces adapt their business models. Not everyone, however, agrees with the Commission's rationale.
Analyst Radovan Durana argues that the measure is primarily protectionist: "It's a protectionist measure. Imposing a €3 tariff on a package worth €10 amounts to a 30% tariff", he told Statement. After VAT is added to the customs duty, he estimates the final price of such a purchase could rise by roughly 40%: "This may help some retailers, but large e-commerce platforms will most likely continue expanding their European warehouse networks to avoid these trade barriers."
In his view, the European Commission should evaluate the measure after one year to determine who ultimately benefited from it.
Small Purchases Will See the Biggest Price Increases
Asian online marketplaces have built much of their success on inexpensive, low-value orders. Those purchases are likely to be hit hardest. Grant Thornton tax expert Lubomira Murgasova says the fixed customs duty could exceed the value of the cheapest products many times over: "If you buy a phone case worth €0.50, you'll pay customs duty equal to 600% of the item's price. VAT will then be added on top."
The new system is more complex than a simple charge per parcel. Customs duties will apply to each customs category within a shipment rather than to the shipment as a whole. A customer ordering a T-shirt and a USB cable, for example, would pay €6 ($6.84) because the items belong to two different customs categories. Five identical T-shirts, however, would incur only a single €3 ($3.40) duty.
The Slovak Ministry of Finance expects import costs to rise and acknowledges that retailers are likely to pass those costs on to consumers: "Starting 1 July 2026, the duty exemption will be replaced by a €3 customs duty per item category for shipments with a total value of up to €150. This will increase import-related costs, which are likely to be reflected in the final price paid by consumers."
According to Durana, shoppers placing small orders – or splitting purchases into several deliveries – will feel the biggest impact: "Smaller shipments or multiple packages will become significantly more expensive. Another question is what additional paperwork recipients will have to complete."
How the New Duty Will Be Collected
For the majority of consumers, the payment process itself will change very little. In most EU countries, courier companies or postal operators will continue submitting customs declarations on customers' behalf before collecting the customs duty from the recipient. Consumers who choose to submit customs declarations themselves will pay customs authorities directly.
Slovak customs authorities told Statement the same approach will continue after the reform. Not every shipment will be treated identically, and preferential customs rates available under international trade agreements will still apply where eligible. However, shipments imported through the IOSS (Import One-Stop-Shop) system – which already collects VAT at the point of sale – will still be subject to the new customs duty.
Will European Retailers Benefit?
Creating a more level playing field for European retailers is one of the Commission's central objectives. The Slovak Ministry of Finance believes the reform should help retailers across the bloc compete with overseas sellers benefiting from duty-free access.
Experts are more cautious. Asked whether European retailers would benefit, Durana replied simply: "To a small extent, yes." Murgasova shares that assessment. She believes large Asian marketplaces have sufficient financial resources to absorb part of the additional costs or adapt their logistics. Their price advantage may narrow, but it is unlikely to disappear altogether.
Warehouses May Move Closer to Consumers
One likely consequence of the reform is the continued expansion of European warehouse networks. "There probably won't be any fundamental change, mainly because the largest retailers already operate European warehouses", Durana said.
Murgasova believes the trend is already underway and could accelerate further. Platforms such as Temu and Shein are likely to continue expanding logistics centers in countries including Poland, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Slovakia, reducing the need to repeatedly import low-value shipments from Asia. For Central European economies, this could create new logistics jobs while increasing tax revenues.
More Paperwork and Slower Deliveries
The reform will increase the administrative burden, and importers will have to classify goods more precisely because the number of customs categories will determine the final amount of duty. The IOSS system will also expand beyond VAT collection to include customs duties.
Although authorities do not expect a sharp increase in customs proceedings, the procedures themselves will become more complex. Grant Thornton says temporary delivery delays cannot be ruled out, particularly during the pre-Christmas shopping season.
The situation is expected to improve once the EU launches its centralized Customs Data Hub in 2028, replacing the bloc's 27 national customs systems with a single digital platform.
Only the First Step
The July 2026 changes are only the beginning of a broader overhaul of the EU customs system. According to the Slovak Ministry of Finance, a comprehensive reform is scheduled for 2028, addressing the rapid growth of e-commerce, digitalization and changing global trade patterns. Grant Thornton likewise expects further tightening. The firm believes the next phase will bring stricter product safety controls and additional obligations for sellers outside the EU.
Cheap imports from Asia are unlikely to disappear. But for millions of consumers across Europe, impulse purchases that once cost only a few euros are likely to become noticeably more expensive once customs duties and VAT are added. The era of ultra-cheap cross-border shopping may not be over – but it is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
