A Fragile Ceasefire and Disputed Buffer Zones
In the ceasefire memorandum, Israel also stated that it had no territorial ambitions in Lebanon. That clause sits uneasily with calls from parts of Israel’s far right and the settler movement for a renewed Israeli presence in southern Lebanon. The idea of Jewish settlements south of the Litani River is therefore unlikely to disappear from Israel’s domestic debate.
Under Friday’s agreement, however, the United States also plans to invest in the Lebanese Armed Forces. The aim is to strengthen the army so that it can demilitarize Hezbollah on its own. According to IDF assessments, Beirut currently lacks the capacity to do so.
Jerusalem has reserved the right to exercise control in the security zones. If the IDF determines that Hezbollah has not been disarmed, it would return to the two designated areas. Channel 15 clarified that the Jewish state has not committed to any timeframe and that its troops may remain in Lebanon indefinitely.
The IDF’s continued presence in Lebanon drew an immediate response from local Shiites, who staged large demonstrations against the agreement on Friday evening. Hundreds took to the streets of Beirut, waving yellow Hezbollah flags in support of the militants, who part of Lebanon’s political spectrum sees as defending the southern border against Israel.
On Monday morning, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri responded by refusing to ratify the document. The leader of the Shia Amal Movement, a close Hezbollah ally, called the current wording a dictate and warned that it would not preserve Lebanon’s rights. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem also rejected the agreement.
Lebanon’s confessional political system is rooted in the 1943 National Pact, which set out the country’s power-sharing arrangements. Under this system, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of parliament a Shia. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have therefore accepted the terms of the agreement, but Berri views it as a restriction aimed in particular at his own community.
In the first hours after the agreement was announced, however, the IDF and Hezbollah exchanged fire, once again raising the question of whether this was merely another round of stalling. The ceasefire that Israel and Lebanon concluded in April was, in fact, viewed even by Netanyahu’s associates as little more than a publicity stunt aimed at President Donald Trump.
Lebanon’s Refusal to Recognize Israel
During the April talks in Washington, Israel’s ambassador, Yechiel Leiter, had already raised the prospect of peaceful relations with Lebanon. Beirut, however, remains far from normalization: it does not recognize Israel and the two countries have no diplomatic relations, a position still shared by several states in the region.
In 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords, joining Egypt and Jordan among the few Arab states that recognize Israel. Iran had maintained diplomatic relations with Israel before the 1979 revolution, but severed them after the Islamic Republic was established.
Hezbollah emerged with the backing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps during Lebanon’s civil war, after Israel’s 1982 invasion, which followed years of PLO attacks from southern Lebanon and the attempted assassination of Israel’s ambassador in London. It has been at war with Israel since October 2023, when the Palestinian terror group Hamas attacked southern Israel. In September 2024, the IDF launched a ground invasion of Lebanon after Hezbollah attacked northern Israel.
Renewed military operations in southern Lebanon have claimed more than 4,200 lives since early March, displaced more than 1.2 million people and, after the destruction of civilian infrastructure, left many with nowhere to return. They have also pushed the IDF’s manpower close to breaking point.
A ceasefire that was supposed to take effect in mid-June collapsed after three days. In that instance too, the IDF refused to withdraw, prompting Hezbollah to launch a rocket and drone attack on its positions. The Israeli Air Force subsequently carried out large-scale strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs and parts of Lebanon in the Litani River basin, ending the ceasefire once again.
Can the Peace Hold?
The war in Lebanon shows that the conflict cannot be ended by pressure alone or by each side rejecting the other’s terms. Israel sees Hezbollah’s presence on its northern border as intolerable. Hezbollah, in turn, treats Israeli soldiers on Lebanese soil as a casus belli. One side opens fire, the other responds, and the cycle of killing begins again.
This year alone, two ceasefires have collapsed in this manner. Gaza offered an earlier warning. Israel’s 2021 operation against Hamas produced tactical gains and was presented at the time as strengthening deterrence. Two years later, the 7 October attack exposed how fragile that deterrence had been.
Although the IDF achieved many tactical successes during its campaign in Lebanon, they have not yet delivered lasting security for civilians in northern Israel. The Jewish state thus repeatedly encounters the same historical lesson: what matters is not only winning the war, but winning the peace.
