Trump Brings the Bill to NATO

NATO leaders will gather in Ankara on 7 and 8 July for a summit dominated by questions of defense spending, military production and the future of the transatlantic alliance under US President Donald Trump.

Trump is expected to attend, alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is scheduled to meet the US president on Wednesday. EU leaders, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and several partners from Asia and the Middle East will also take part.

The summit comes at a sensitive moment. Trump has long argued that NATO places an unfair financial burden on the US. His administration has announced plans to reduce the American military presence in Europe and launched a six-month review of US troop deployments across the continent. European governments fear Washington is preparing to shift more responsibility for the continent's defense onto its allies.

For Europe, Ankara will be a test of credibility. At the NATO summit in The Hague, allies pledged to raise defense and defense-related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. They now hope to convince Trump that the commitment will translate into concrete action.

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Ukraine Remains the Test

Zelensky arrives in Ankara in a difficult position. Fighting on the front has largely stalled, Russia remains committed to its war aims and Trump continues to search for a path toward ending the conflict. According to Reuters, the US president is also expected to hold bilateral meetings with several other leaders on the sidelines of the summit.

NATO is expected to announce further support for Ukraine. A draft summit declaration refers to €70bn ($80bn) in military aid, equipment and training for 2026. Allies are to maintain at least the same level of support in 2027, with the US not expected to contribute to that package.

Part of the funding will come from existing bilateral commitments, supplemented by an EU loan facility for Ukrainian defense investment and procurement. For Europe, this marks a significant shift – Ukraine remains a NATO priority, but the financial burden is increasingly falling on European governments.

The summit will also focus on expanding defense production. NATO will host its first dedicated defense industry forum, where contracts worth billions of euros are expected to be announced. Following the spending commitments made in The Hague, attention is now shifting to factories, ammunition, supply chains and joint procurement.

Iran will also feature prominently on the agenda. The recent conflict has strained relations between Trump and several European governments. According to the draft communiqué, allies will reaffirm that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon and will call on Tehran to respect freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

The participation of partners from Asia reflects NATO's increasingly global outlook. Defense ministers are expected to meet counterparts from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, while President Lee Jae Myung will attend the leaders' dinner.

Erdogan Seeks a Larger Role

For Turkey, the summit is an opportunity to project influence. Ankara is hosting the meeting at a moment when the US is pressing Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defense, Ukraine continues to require military support, the Middle East remains unstable and the Black Sea retains strategic importance.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to demonstrate that Turkey is more than just the host. Under the Montreux Convention, Ankara controls access to the Black Sea through the Turkish Straits. Turkey also has NATO's second-largest military after the US and continues to expand its domestic defense industry.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends the welcome ceremony at the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, on 29 June 2022. Photo: Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Turkey also intends to showcase its drone technology, defense manufacturers and industrial capacity. At the same time, Ankara continues to press allies to lift restrictions on defense exports. Talks with France and Italy include cooperation on the SAMP/T air defense system, while Erdogan is expected to urge Trump to lift US sanctions and restore Turkey's participation in the F-35 fighter jet program.

Ankara is also seeking a role in Europe's growing defense architecture. Although Turkey is not an EU member, it remains one of Europe's most important military powers, alongside countries such as the UK and Norway.

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The Turkish authorities have visibly prepared the capital for the summit. Demonstrations have been banned, security measures tightened and large parts of the city placed under heavy protection.

For NATO, Ankara has become a summit of competing demands. Trump wants Europe to spend more. Zelensky needs more weapons. European leaders want to preserve American security guarantees. Erdogan wants Turkey to be recognized as a central power within the Alliance.