Hamas Will Not Give Up Its Weapons
The peace plan envisioned a clear sequence of steps. Once the fighting ended, Hamas was to be stripped of power, a Palestinian technocratic administration was to take over, Israel was to withdraw its troops, and the international force was to move in and secure the area.
The entire sequence depends on one condition: Hamas must disarm. That is precisely what has not happened. Although the Hamas-aligned governing body announced last Monday that it is willing to hand over administration to a technocratic committee, it made no commitment to disarming its military wing. Analysts are treating the move with caution as a result. As long as it retains its weapons, Hamas remains the strongest force in parts of the Gaza Strip.
The new administrative committee is currently based in Cairo and is meant to eventually govern Gaza and build up a new police force, one that would ultimately have to take on the task of collecting Hamas weapons. So far, however, the political and military groundwork for that remains absent, leaving the people of Gaza facing a standstill.
Indonesia's Retreat Leaves a Gap
The international side of the plan is faltering as well. Indonesia had been seen as a key potential troop contributor, given that it is among the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping missions and had floated sending thousands of soldiers to Gaza. In March, however, Jakarta put the negotiations on hold, citing the instability of the wider region.
Other countries' appetite has also been dampened by the war with Iran and the situation in Lebanon. Four Indonesian UN peacekeepers were killed in Lebanon following fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, and Indonesia's participation in the Gaza force remains suspended.
At present, only four countries are reported to be moving toward formal commitments: Albania, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Morocco. The first tangible unit is expected to be that small Moroccan contingent. The supporting infrastructure remains only partially built as well. A logistics hub on the Israeli side, near the Kerem Shalom border crossing, is largely complete, but a mission site inside Gaza has yet to be established. Together, the two sites are meant to eventually house around 5,500 ISF personnel.
The Moroccan troops' initial task would therefore be a modest one: securing the logistics hub. Only later could units carry out limited operations inside Gaza from there, such as route reconnaissance.
Reconstruction Stalls Before It Starts
A funding gap compounds the problem. The Board of Peace has cited around $17bn in pledged funds for reconstruction, but only a fraction of that amount has actually materialized. A Board representative said hundreds of millions of dollars have been collected so far, with further pledges expected in the coming months.
Many donor states remain hesitant as long as Hamas stays armed and Israel continues to control parts of Gaza. Arab states in particular are wary of funding projects that could be seen as cementing an Israeli occupation. The United Arab Emirates is a notable exception: Abu Dhabi is said to have already contributed around $100m to the Board of Peace. A pilot project for roughly 25,000 displaced Gazans is planned for Rafah, with the Temporary Emirates Housing Complex intended to serve as a model for other parts of the Gaza Strip.
Even this project has stalled. According to those involved in the planning, land surveyors from Gaza were stopped at a Hamas checkpoint in May while attempting to inspect an area near the so-called Yellow Line. The incident is now cited as an example of how Hamas can obstruct even modest steps toward reconstruction.
