For Europe, however, the situation has two sides. More Venezuelan oil on the global market could eventually bring down oil and fuel prices, easing inflationary pressures and providing a boost to the European economy.
Venezuela’s oil industry, however, has suffered from years of underinvestment, and its vast reserves cannot be brought to market quickly. Restoring oil fields, infrastructure and refining capacity will require massive investment and years of work.
Chevron is already increasing production in Venezuela and is nearing an agreement to bring its joint ventures under the country’s new energy framework and expand key fields. This suggests that US capital is already positioning itself for a broader reopening of Venezuela’s oil industry. Chevron remains the only major US oil company actively producing in the country.
A Precedent for Greenland
The geopolitical implications are less favorable for the EU. The US will become even more powerful in energy, while Europe remains a major importer. Energy dominance can also translate readily into influence over trade, security and ultimately politics. The United States already holds a strong position in these areas in its relationship with the EU, through the NATO military alliance and the dollar, among other things.
Meanwhile, Venezuela sets a remarkable precedent for Greenland, which the US administration is seeking to secure. The island is a self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, which formally falls under Danish jurisdiction in certain respects. Greenland withdrew from the European Community, as the EU was then known, in 1985 after gaining home rule and voting to leave. It subsequently became associated with the EC as an overseas country and territory.
Trump does not need to formally annex the territory to gain de facto control over its strategic resources. The Venezuelan model points to another path: long-term concessions, US capital, US technological superiority and control over key assets, while formal sovereignty remains intact.
Such a scenario could become a realistic option for US policy toward Greenland. The territory is strategically important because of its location in the Arctic, its reserves of critical minerals, its potential role in future transportation routes and its military significance. Trump therefore need not strive to have the American flag flying over Nuuk. It may be much easier for the US to secure concessions lasting decades or even generations for mining, infrastructure and ports, alongside an expanded military presence.
Greenland could thus become a testing ground for a new American geopolitical strategy. Instead of the traditional occupation of territory, the focus is shifting toward economic control of its most valuable assets. If Washington’s model proves successful, Europeans should take Trump’s ambitions in Greenland much more seriously than they have so far – especially as they are once again somewhat more dependent on the US.
The US president is, in fact, demonstrating that his return to the Monroe Doctrine is not merely historical rhetoric. The United States increasingly views the strategic raw materials of the Western Hemisphere as part of its own security and economic sphere. And Greenland clearly falls within that sphere.
Originally published on the author's personal website lukaskovanda.cz.
