Ukraine cannot blackmail its way into EU membership

Ukraine has been trying to accelerate its path to the European Union for three years. It has had candidate status since 2022 and began accession negotiations in 2024. It sees its accession to the European Union as a guarantee of its security against Russian aggression.

However, the accession country does not hesitate to use violent blackmail methods in this process in order to achieve this as quickly as possible. At this point, one can leave aside all objective criteria (war, economic and security situation in the country) that mean Ukraine will probably never become a member of the Union.

The fact that Ukraine is attempting to jeopardize the critical energy security of other member states is reason enough not to allow it to join.

Zelensky's ultimatum goes too far

President Volodymyr Zelensky's ultimatum that Ukraine will continue to attack the Druzhba oil pipeline as long as Hungary does not lift its veto on Ukraine's accession to the EU is absolutely unacceptable for a member state. Not only from a political point of view, but also in terms of meeting the strict criteria for EU accession.

Ukraine is repeatedly attacking the Druzhba pipeline, through which the Russian Federation transports oil to EU countries, including Hungary and Slovakia. The Druzhba pipeline is one of the longest and most important energy routes in the world and therefore a key factor in the energy supply of member states. In this context, the Union has called on third countries to refrain from attacks on infrastructure that is important to them.

From the perspective of a military conflict, an attack on Russian infrastructure is acceptable. Russia finances its military action largely through the sale of oil.

However, it is not acceptable (neither from the legal perspective of a country seeking to join the EU nor from the perspective of international law on energy supply security agreements) for Ukraine to carry out these attacks in order to force Hungary to act.

Zelensky stated that “the existence of Druzhba depends on Hungary's attitude” toward Ukraine's membership in the European Union.

Hungary has so far rejected Ukraine's efforts to integrate into the Union, which it is fully entitled to do as an EU member. US President Donald Trump is also trying to change this stance and is calling on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to reconsider his position.

Despite the efforts of the US and the EU to help Ukraine, President Zelensky apparently thought it would be a good idea to blackmail the EU member by jeopardizing its energy security. Zelensky has indirectly said that Ukrainian attacks will continue until he achieves his goal.

In doing so, he is giving the impression that the accession country is threatening the members of the Union in order to force a political decision.

The country must meet strict criteria for EU accession

From Brussels' point of view, this is a dangerous precedent: if an accession candidate attacks the infrastructure of member states, it jeopardizes not only energy security but also the trust on which EU enlargement is based.

This was directly addressed by the spokesman for the Hungarian Foreign Ministry, Péter Szijjártó, who called on Zelensky to stop endangering Hungary and its energy security.

If a country wants to become a member state of the EU, it must meet the basic parameters, also known as the Copenhagen criteria.

The conditions set out in the Treaty on European Union require an accession country to have stable institutions, democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities, a functioning market economy and the ability to withstand competitive pressure, as well as the ability to comply with and implement EU rules and adhere to its objectives.

The implementation of EU regulations and compliance with its objectives appear particularly problematic in view of Ukraine's attacks on the Druzhba oil pipeline.

Ukraine must comply with the established EU regulations in order to demonstrate that it will have no problems in this regard in the event of membership.

Article 194 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) emphasizes the Union's objectives in the field of energy. These objectives include ensuring the functioning of the energy market, ensuring security of energy supply in the Union, promoting energy efficiency, and promoting the interconnection of energy networks.

Ukraine is acting contrary to the EU's energy objectives

Almost all of these objectives and compliance with them have been directly rejected by Ukraine through President Zelensky.

The attacks on the Druzhba oil pipeline, as well as the deliberate restriction of energy supplies, are in direct contradiction to the objectives of ensuring the functioning of the energy market, energy security, and energy efficiency.

Ukraine is pursuing the opposite goal: with its attacks, it wants to create such energy instability in Hungary that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will change his stance on Ukraine's integration into the EU.

On this point, Ukraine is already harming a member state in the area of energy security, disregarding the rules established when it joined the EU, and trying to force its way into the Union. For some mysterious reason, it does not shy away from saying this openly, as if this would speed up its accession to the Community.

The history of Member States' accession to the European Union shows how strict the criteria they had to meet for accession were. The compatibility of their legislation and values with those of Europe, and their compliance with them, played an important role in this regard.

It is obvious that Ukraine, under the influence of Russian attacks, wants to skip several points in the accession process. However, it is unacceptable for a state in the European area to enforce its demands with military force if they are not met.

War does not mean free access

Ukraine has the unrestricted right to apply for membership in the European Union and to defend itself in the war with Russia. However, its integration will depend on whether it can demonstrate that it meets not only the technical criteria but also the value-based requirements.

The question now is how the Union will respond to this situation. Hungary is currently out of favor with European structures due to its pro-Russian stance and other disputes from the past, but it is still a member state. The Union must protect its members from external threats.

Furthermore, following President Zelensky's statement to Hungary, it cannot be reasonably expected that Orbán will reconsider his stance—it would appear as if he had yielded to Ukrainian threats.

From the EU's perspective, these attacks not only complicate energy security, but also the Union's enlargement process.

As a candidate for accession, Ukraine must meet the Copenhagen criteria, including respect for EU values. It would be highly questionable if the Union were to condone such behavior by a candidate country, which also contradicts its energy objectives.