All political parties line up at the starting line and wait for the starting signal. However, this image is very misleading. Society is not a shapeless mass that can be molded at will, and even if people and politicians do not have long memories, society is strongly influenced by sociological principles.
Political marketers know this very well.
Voters are not empty vessels that can be filled with current slogans. Every person is anchored in a specific environment—they grow up in a specific region, have their own life experiences, education, income, and social ties. These factors form an imaginary grid through which voters perceive politics. Even the best marketing and the constant repetition of lies or half-truths will not fill the fridge or the wallet. Propaganda has its limits, which are set by economic reality.
Spolu coalition: castles in the air that have nothing to do with reality
The Spolu coalition, winner of the last parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic, has opted for precisely this style of campaigning. Many politicians and influencers try to convince voters that they are doing well. Government representatives like to repeat that the average wage has increased by 10,000 Czech koruna [more than 400 euros, editor's note]. While this is true, it must be added that cumulative inflation under Petr Fiala's government has exceeded 30 percent.
The main problem with Spolu's campaign is the lack of concrete promises. When politicians talk about affordable housing or increasing the efficiency of the state, the question arises: Why haven't they done so in four years of government? The Fiala government had an advantage that other cabinets did not have—it was supported by 108 out of 200 votes in the Chamber of Deputies, which is an unprecedented luxury. In addition, it had strong support in the Senate and in the presidential palace, which works closely with the government.
The outgoing Czech government was not threatened by defectors or the Pirates' departure after three years, as the coalition still had a comfortable majority of 104 votes. The Pirates helped themselves marketing-wise with this departure – they quickly forgot their three-year participation in the government and began to criticize it.
Being in opposition is always an advantage. People like stories about the weak defeating the strong. The elections will show whether the Pirates can convert this marketing advantage into seats in parliament.
However, Fiala's government did not rule solely out of inertia. On the contrary, the scale of its scandals was enormous. Listing all the scandals—from the Bitcoin affair to the dosimeter affair to the purchase of an army kitchen to corruption at Motol Hospital—would fill the rest of this article. The government followed a strategy attributed to sexologist Miroslav Plzák: “Cover up, cover up, cover up.”
Or more precisely: “Ignore, ignore, ignore.” How was it possible to overlook these scandals? The reason is simple: this government was perceived as the “camp of good,” i.e., pro-European. Compared to its geopolitical and ideological anchoring, all scandals were considered marginal.
The state on the right side
However, the geopolitical anchoring proved to be the government's undoing. Yes, Petr Fiala has supported Ukraine since the beginning of the war, but this support was not particularly far-sighted. Perhaps he was too quick to believe his security advisors, who assumed that economic sanctions would destroy the Russian economy and that dissatisfied citizens would overthrow President Putin. None of this has happened—the war continues and Putin continues to enjoy strong support at home. The same cannot be said for Petr Fiala, who is falling behind in popularity polls in Czechia and Europe.
And that's not all. The government silenced critics by claiming that aid to Ukraine would benefit Czechia due to its involvement in the country's reconstruction. Western representatives have assigned the Luhansk region to the Czech Republic in the reconstruction plans. However, it is more likely that Petr Fiala will win the elections again than that Czech companies will be involved in the reconstruction of Luhansk.
These examples show that the main problem facing the Spolu coalition is creating a parallel media reality. Perhaps Prime Minister Fiala really believes that by repeating assertions, it is possible to change reality—that the Czech Republic is benefiting from the war, that inflation is only temporary, and that the energy crisis has been overcome. Sooner or later, however, voters will recognize the difference between reality and the media backdrop.
Dissatisfaction with rising prices, uncertainty in the labor market, or chaotic government measures cannot be suppressed by press conferences. Politics is not about belief, but about results, and it is precisely these that are an obstacle to the current campaign.
Metaphysical struggle
The current government has no choice but to play its last card: portraying the elections as a battle between good and evil. This vision is shared by Catholic priest Marek Orko Vácha, for example. However, appealing to moral and metaphysical principles is not a particularly strong strategy in agnostic Czechia. The so-called battle for the soul of the nation can only mobilize the government's most loyal supporters.
The materialistic Czechs, who often do not believe in an immortal soul, will vote according to their worldly interests – that is, according to whether they can afford more for their money.
The elections in Czechia will therefore primarily be about how people assess their current situation and their future: whether they can afford an apartment, go on vacation, have a secure job, and whether the state helps them or rather stands in their way.
If the current ruling parties win, it means that the Czech people are actually doing quite well. However, if they lose, it will not be because of an “attack by evil,” but because of the simple fact that voters no longer believe the government's promises and have voted according to the reality of their wallets. And these are always the most convincing election platform.