The winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday. Since taking office, US President Donald Trump has never made a secret of his desire to receive what is arguably the most prestigious award in the world.
Four of his predecessors have already received the prize—Barack Obama in 2009, Jimmy Carter in 2002, Woodrow Wilson in 1919, and Theodore Roosevelt in 1906. All except Carter received the award during their term in office; Obama was honored less than eight months after taking office—the same stage Trump is now at.
However, experts believe it is highly unlikely that Joergen Watne Frydnes, chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, will announce Trump's name this afternoon.
Although the US president announced on Wednesday the conclusion of a ceasefire and hostage deal as part of the first phase of his initiative to end the Gaza war, according to the Norwegian newspaper VG, the committee's decision was already made on Monday – before the agreement was announced.
And even if the five members of the committee had known about it, it is unlikely that they would have made a hasty decision when months of debate are usually required.
Experienced observers of the Nobel Prize consider a victory for Trump highly unlikely, pointing to his attempts to weaken the international order established after World War II, which the Nobel Committee holds in particularly high regard.
Nina Graeger, director of the Norwegian Peace Research Institute PRIO, explained that Trump's withdrawal of the US from the World Health Organization, his exit from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, and his trade war with allies contradict the spirit of Nobel's will.
Historian Asle Sveen also recalled Trump's attempts to cozy up to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “His admiration for dictators also speaks against him,” Sveen said. “That contradicts Alfred Nobel's will.”
It is more likely that the committee will highlight the Sudanese volunteer network Emergency Response Rooms, a UN organization such as UNHCR, UNICEF or the International Court of Justice, or an aid organization such as the Red Cross or Doctors Without Borders.
The committee could also focus on journalists—after a year in which more media workers than ever before were killed while reporting, most of them in Gaza. In this case, organizations such as the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders could be honored. However, surprises cannot be ruled out.
“All politicians want to win the Nobel Peace Prize,” committee chairman Frydnes told Reuters.
“We hope that the ideals on which the Nobel Peace Prize is based are something that all political leaders should strive for... We are aware of the attention both in the United States and around the world, but apart from that, we are working just as we always do.”
(reuters, est)